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That paper is comically bad. Coal is the backbone of many grid systems, and a real part of what people pay for electricity. Somehow they call coal "uneconomic

by abe_m 5y ago

That paper is comically bad. Coal is the backbone of many grid systems, and a real part of what people pay for electricity. Somehow they call coal "uneconomic" without defining any standard by which the define economic. How is a multi-decade old backbone of the system "uneconomic". It makes no sense. That is like calling transportation by ships "uneconomic". It is telling that there isn't one engineer included in the authoring team. It is unlikely that they understand the purpose of these plants in grid operation. The plants at the top of their data set with low capacity factor are likely needed for covering peak demand. If you don't have those plants, then you have rolling black outs. And the value in those plants is that they can be started on demand. You can't start solar or wind on demand. Saying you can cover their purpose with solar or wind is like saying you can replace a transport truck with a Tesla Model 3. No, you can't. They aren't the same thing, and they don't provide the same function. Those peaking plants show really high Cap-ex per MWh. That is because they don't run much. We pay that price because we value the grid being active 24/7. There is no way to eliminate that Cap-ex. If you truly wanted to replace them with Solar or Wind, their actual replacement is grid-tied storage. There isn't any storage technology that comes close on Cap-ex for multi-day or multi-week coverage of grid scale demand. Coal plants exists that provide this function. Storage at this scale has never been done. It is all conjecture, promises, and vapourware on the storage side. They mention looking at hourly wind speeds to determine generation of electricity via wind turbines, but no mention of hourly electric demand. For the grid to work, there must be an instantaneous 1:1 ratio between supply and demand. It is a fully instantaneous system. The controls and governors of the generators are running real-time to match generating output to demand. If a solar panel is able to produce 20 kWh of energy between 8 am and 4 pm and 0 kWh between 10 pm and 3 am, but the load requires 5 kWh of energy between 8am and 4 pm, and 15 kWh between 10 pm and 3 am, then: There will be 15 kWh of generated electricity that must be wasted during the day, and the system has a black out at night. aka system failure. The study makes no mention of this time matching requirement, thus making the cost comparison between wind, solar, and coal apples to oranges. Coal actually provides the needed power, and grid availability people expect, solar and wind do not. Yet another ridiculous "study" by people who have no idea how the grid works.

deleted 5y ago
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toomuchtodo 5y ago
9GW of coal and nuclear generation capacity is set to retire this year [1]. The approval of decommissioning those generators indicates that local capacity markets have taken into account renewables and natural gas providing adequate capacity when those retirements occur. As renewables and utility scale storage continues to be built, that'll push out natural gas generation. Renewables are the vast majority of new generation being built [2], and they can meet the same capacity factor of thermal generators [3]. There's only about 236GW of coal generation capacity left to replace [3] (~6-7 years worth of generating capacity build out at current rate of ~37GW/year, excluding behind the meter rooftop solar). I would be absolutely shocked if there are any coal generators operating by 2030 based on the uptake curve of renewables and the cost decline of storage. You'll still have natural gas, but an unknown amount of those generators are going to be stranded assets when you hit an inflection point and they're no longer competitive with storage backed renewables. Tangentially, most open cycle gas turbine peakers are already no longer cost competitive against battery storage (with batteries between ~30% cheaper) [4] [5]. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46436 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46436 ("According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electric generators, 9.1 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity is scheduled to retire in 2021. Nuclear generating capacity will account for the largest share of total capacity retirements (56%), followed by coal (30%).") [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416 ("According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electricity generators, developers and power plant owners plan for 39.7 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity to start commercial operation in 2021. Solar will account for the largest share of new capacity at 39%, followed by wind at 31%. About 3% of the new capacity will come from the new nuclear reactor at the Vogtle power plant in Georgia.") [3] https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/09/18/how-does-the-us-retire-236-gw-of-coal-and-1000-gas-peaker-plants/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/09/18/how-does-the-us-retir... ("An additional finding: solar-plus-storage has 99.8% of the capacity value of a theoretical “perfect generator” in California’s CAISO grid region, according to a study commissioned by California’s three major utilities — easily matching gas.") [4] https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/battery-storage-the-new-clean-peaker.pdf https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources... ("Battery Storage: The new clean peaker") [5] https://www.psehealthyenergy.org/our-work/energy-storage-peaker-plant-replacement-project/ https://www.psehealthyenergy.org/our-work/energy-storage-pea... ("Energy Storage Peaker Plant Replacement Project")

by abe_m 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

toomuchtodo 5y ago

9GW of coal and nuclear generation capacity is set to retire this year [1]. The approval of decommissioning those generators indicates that local capacity markets have taken into account renewables and natural gas providing adequate capacity when those retirements occur. As renewables and utility scale storage continues to be built, that'll push out natural gas generation. Renewables are the vast majority of new generation being built [2], and they can meet the same capacity factor of thermal generators [3]. There's only about 236GW of coal generation capacity left to replace [3] (~6-7 years worth of generating capacity build out at current rate of ~37GW/year, excluding behind the meter rooftop solar). I would be absolutely shocked if there are any coal generators operating by 2030 based on the uptake curve of renewables and the cost decline of storage. You'll still have natural gas, but an unknown amount of those generators are going to be stranded assets when you hit an inflection point and they're no longer competitive with storage backed renewables. Tangentially, most open cycle gas turbine peakers are already no longer cost competitive against battery storage (with batteries between ~30% cheaper) [4] [5]. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46436 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46436 ("According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electric generators, 9.1 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity is scheduled to retire in 2021. Nuclear generating capacity will account for the largest share of total capacity retirements (56%), followed by coal (30%).") [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416 ("According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electricity generators, developers and power plant owners plan for 39.7 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity to start commercial operation in 2021. Solar will account for the largest share of new capacity at 39%, followed by wind at 31%. About 3% of the new capacity will come from the new nuclear reactor at the Vogtle power plant in Georgia.") [3] https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/09/18/how-does-the-us-retire-236-gw-of-coal-and-1000-gas-peaker-plants/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/09/18/how-does-the-us-retir... ("An additional finding: solar-plus-storage has 99.8% of the capacity value of a theoretical “perfect generator” in California’s CAISO grid region, according to a study commissioned by California’s three major utilities — easily matching gas.") [4] https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/battery-storage-the-new-clean-peaker.pdf https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources... ("Battery Storage: The new clean peaker") [5] https://www.psehealthyenergy.org/our-work/energy-storage-peaker-plant-replacement-project/ https://www.psehealthyenergy.org/our-work/energy-storage-pea... ("Energy Storage Peaker Plant Replacement Project")