3 ms·

It's very difficult to describe how bad this earthquake is expected to be for a large swath of the Pacific Northwest when it happens again (and it's when, not i

It's very difficult to describe how bad this earthquake is expected to be for a large swath of the Pacific Northwest when it happens again (and it's when, not if). It will be similar to Fukushima except absolutely nothing in the region is designed for earthquakes of this magnitude, not to mention the expected tsunami. Given the massive investment required and lack of motivation to do it, there will be almost no preparation in advance. It is not unreasonable to predict it will be the biggest natural disaster in American history by orders of magnitude. Here is the best attempt I've seen so far to novelize what will happen in Portland. While obviously speculative, it's all very much based on the evidence at the time and I think does a better job of describing what will happen than just reading the dry (and usually incorrect because they assume supporting infrastructure) reports from the utility companies on how long they think it will take to, for example, repair the transmission lines. If you live in Portland, I implore you to sit down for an evening and take the time to digest this: https://www.vice.com/en/article/8q8gyx/first-five-minutes-big-one-earthquake https://www.vice.com/en/article/8q8gyx/first-five-minutes-bi... Don't panic, but take this seriously, this is a scientifically verified thing that will happen. It is never too early to consider things like earthquake retrofitting your home (bolting the frame to the foundation) and preparing emergency supplies like properly stored food and water. If you're on the coast, memorize your escape route, you won't have time to look it up and your phone won't work anyways.

metatation 5y ago
I recently listened to the excellent "Fault Lines"[0] podcast from CBC podcast by seismologist Johanna Wagstaffe. It describes the anticipated impact of the impending megathrust earthquake by examining the first moments, hours, days, etc after the event. [0] https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/147-fault-lines https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/147-fault-lines
connor4312 5y ago
This is a little pessimistic.[1] As a percentage, few people are expected to die, and modern buildings are unlikely to collapse. At least in the Puget Sound region, buildings codes have been seismically sound for several decades, and old buildings and infrastructure have gradually been retrofitted[2]. There is _already_ preparation being made with the aforementioned programs, and notably the Cascadia Rising simulation excercise carried out between the Washington and Oregon governments and FEMA.[3] This will be a huge disaster, but our government and institutions are not apathetic to it. 1. https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s... 2. https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Emergency/PlansOEM/SHIVA/2014-04-23_Earthquakes(0).pdf https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Emergency/Plan... 3. https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210318/emergency-managers-announce-improvements-after-cascadia-rising-exercise https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210318/emergency-manage... (a 2022 exercise is planned)
- irrational 5y ago
  Does the Pugent Sound have anything like the Tualatin Basin? Long ago a giant flood from the columbia river gorge filled a large basalt valley with hundreds of feet of clay silt. Today there are many hundreds of thousands of people living and working on top of the clay silt, including the entirety of Nike world headquarters and the majority of Intel's fabs. When the earthquake hits, the entire basin is predicted to liquify, just like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NSXmTfASM0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NSXmTfASM0

metatation 5y ago

I recently listened to the excellent "Fault Lines"[0] podcast from CBC podcast by seismologist Johanna Wagstaffe. It describes the anticipated impact of the impending megathrust earthquake by examining the first moments, hours, days, etc after the event. [0] https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/147-fault-lines https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/147-fault-lines

connor4312 5y ago

This is a little pessimistic.[1] As a percentage, few people are expected to die, and modern buildings are unlikely to collapse. At least in the Puget Sound region, buildings codes have been seismically sound for several decades, and old buildings and infrastructure have gradually been retrofitted[2]. There is _already_ preparation being made with the aforementioned programs, and notably the Cascadia Rising simulation excercise carried out between the Washington and Oregon governments and FEMA.[3] This will be a huge disaster, but our government and institutions are not apathetic to it. 1. https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s... 2. https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Emergency/PlansOEM/SHIVA/2014-04-23_Earthquakes(0).pdf https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Emergency/Plan... 3. https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210318/emergency-managers-announce-improvements-after-cascadia-rising-exercise https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210318/emergency-manage... (a 2022 exercise is planned)

irrational 5y ago
Does the Pugent Sound have anything like the Tualatin Basin? Long ago a giant flood from the columbia river gorge filled a large basalt valley with hundreds of feet of clay silt. Today there are many hundreds of thousands of people living and working on top of the clay silt, including the entirety of Nike world headquarters and the majority of Intel's fabs. When the earthquake hits, the entire basin is predicted to liquify, just like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NSXmTfASM0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NSXmTfASM0