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The author hedged pretty strongly on that statement here: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-

The author hedged pretty strongly on that statement here: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s... > Perhaps no line in the entire six-thousand-word piece attracted as much attention as this declaration by Kenneth Murphy, head of the fema division responsible for Cascadia: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” The first important thing to note about that remark is that, needless to say, Murphy really said it, and stood by it in the fact-checking process—so, clearly, fema is anticipating that the region will be in very grave shape. > That said, “toast” is not what you would call a precise description, so let me be more specific. What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; fema’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one per cent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail

bilbo0s 5y ago
Correct. Operating assumptions help in planning disaster recovery operations. For instance, which are the areas that you have a very high degree of certainty will survive? These are the areas in which you want to muster your defenses so to speak. I read that as, "we can use I-5 as a distribution backbone if we prioritize its repair because it is very unlikely to suffer too much damage." I also assume that simulations indicate it will not need much repair. Bonus points if we've already re-engineered the sections of I-5 most likely to need repair. It could save time later. So now we can make a plan around what we're likely to have, and if we have more when the time comes it's gravy. Basically, don't position all your recovery assets and facilities along the 101. Doesn't mean the 101 won't be there, it only means your plan has a smaller chance of falling apart if you position the facilities you'll need along I-5.

bilbo0s 5y ago

Correct. Operating assumptions help in planning disaster recovery operations. For instance, which are the areas that you have a very high degree of certainty will survive? These are the areas in which you want to muster your defenses so to speak. I read that as, "we can use I-5 as a distribution backbone if we prioritize its repair because it is very unlikely to suffer too much damage." I also assume that simulations indicate it will not need much repair. Bonus points if we've already re-engineered the sections of I-5 most likely to need repair. It could save time later. So now we can make a plan around what we're likely to have, and if we have more when the time comes it's gravy. Basically, don't position all your recovery assets and facilities along the 101. Doesn't mean the 101 won't be there, it only means your plan has a smaller chance of falling apart if you position the facilities you'll need along I-5.