3 ms·

And there are no simulations that can at least figure out a rough landing area?

• mulmen 5y ago
  That is what this website [1] does. Simulating global weather from the surface up to the Thermosphere [2] a week in advance with the required fidelity to notify even continents would be an enormous undertaking. It would require detailed models of solar activity including how it reaches Earth. As we get closer to reentry time the estimates will improve because there are fewer variables. This particular case is notable because it is a deliberate uncontrolled reentry. Typically reentry is controlled, allowing for fine adjustments. Launch profiles typically also have some safety margin built in where even if a controlled launch becomes uncontrolled the spacecraft will still end up somewhere safe. None of that is the case here so the impact point is at the mercy of the wind. [1]: https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275 https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275 [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth#Thermosphere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth#Thermosphe...
  • mulmen 5y ago
    It’s too late to edit but I attempted to reference my own comment and realized this link has already rotted. It now redirects to a useless Twitter thread. See https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/ https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/ for an up-to-date estimate. Unfortunately it doesn’t have the nice visualization aerospace.org has decided to revoke for this mission specifically.