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Population capping out doesn’t mean people stop wanting to use additional energy. Raising half of the current global population to a Western standard of living

Population capping out doesn’t mean people stop wanting to use additional energy. Raising half of the current global population to a Western standard of living would blow past this hard limit, even if we assume a doubling of energy efficiency. Nothing in this graph[1] should give you the warm and fuzzies that we’ll all somehow band together to avoid this fate. And keep in mind, we are fewer than five generations away on our current path to a physically-unavoidable global catastrophe. This isn’t the sort of thing we can solve with technology. There’s a hard physical limit on global energy production that cannot be exceeded. We don’t know exactly what that number is given greenhouse gases, but it’s definitely less than a few generations of growth away. How close, exactly, do you think we should creep up to this number? [1]: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?country=~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio...

shkkmo 6y ago
> Population capping out doesn’t mean people stop wanting to use additional energy. Nobody said it did. What it does do is reduce the exponential growth rate in energy demand. However, energy use per capita is not currently growing exponentially in developed countries and is declining in some places. The combination of those two factors makes the prediction of continued exponential growth in energy consumption at the same rate pretty unlikely. You should just stop mentioning the thermodynamic limit as it is irrelevant to any of our practical considerations for the predictable future. > Raising half of the current global population to a Western standard of living would blow past this hard limit, even if we assume a doubling of energy efficiency What hard limit are you talking about? There are several thresholds we should avoid crossing, but there are no hard limits (besides the thermodynamic limit, which we wouldn't come anywhere close to reaching even if we gave everyone on the planet a western standard of living and also doubled the population.) > Nothing in this graph[1] should give you the warm and fuzzies that we’ll all somehow band together to avoid this fate. The direness of the global warming situation has been repeatedly acknowledged by me. You seem to think that holding out any hope that we have a path to recovery, matter how hard and long, is "magical thinking" but somehow fail to see that taking this stance is actively making our chances of finding and following that path worse.

shkkmo 6y ago

> Population capping out doesn’t mean people stop wanting to use additional energy. Nobody said it did. What it does do is reduce the exponential growth rate in energy demand. However, energy use per capita is not currently growing exponentially in developed countries and is declining in some places. The combination of those two factors makes the prediction of continued exponential growth in energy consumption at the same rate pretty unlikely. You should just stop mentioning the thermodynamic limit as it is irrelevant to any of our practical considerations for the predictable future. > Raising half of the current global population to a Western standard of living would blow past this hard limit, even if we assume a doubling of energy efficiency What hard limit are you talking about? There are several thresholds we should avoid crossing, but there are no hard limits (besides the thermodynamic limit, which we wouldn't come anywhere close to reaching even if we gave everyone on the planet a western standard of living and also doubled the population.) > Nothing in this graph[1] should give you the warm and fuzzies that we’ll all somehow band together to avoid this fate. The direness of the global warming situation has been repeatedly acknowledged by me. You seem to think that holding out any hope that we have a path to recovery, matter how hard and long, is "magical thinking" but somehow fail to see that taking this stance is actively making our chances of finding and following that path worse.