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https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/Coun... I am reminded of the q

by dv_dt 6y ago

https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/Coun... I am reminded of the quote attributed to Arthur C Clarke. If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong. There are scientists and engineers who say getting to a 100% renewable grid is possible.

coolspot 6y ago
Theoretically, yes. With enough batteries and 2x-3x power production over demand you can have 100% renewable grid. It might require to cut amazon forest and cover it with solar panels, but possible, yes.
- pfdietz 6y ago
  One does not need 2-3x average power production over average demand. With some combination of transmission, batteries, and (importantly) hydrogen storage, the overcapacity and curtailment needed can be quite modest.
belorn 6y ago
Is it possible to create enough gas powered power plants and hydrogen storage facilities to have 100% of a nations capacity running for several weeks during the winter? Yes. Can it all be generated from ocean based windfarms with pipelines? Yes. Will it be cheap? No. Just the production side, the cost in a 2019 study put the numbers around $7-9 per kg of hydrogen. This does not take into the account the cost of the pipeline, the storage facility, or the gas powered power plant. Remember that return of investment only occurs when demands actually exceeds that of cheaper renewable production, unless government steps in and adds subsidies like it does today with oil. Is massive amounts of hydrogen a cheaper and safer alternative to nuclear? Given the lack of commercial built and operated hydrogen wind farms I suspect the answer is no on the commercial side. On the safety side it would be interesting to hear about operating large liquid hydrogen pipelines and storage facilities.
- pfdietz 6y ago
  > Will it be cheap? No. Any energy system large enough to power the world will be a very expensive thing. Fortunately, the world economy is also a very large thing, and can pay for it. We can say with some confidence that while this renewable energy system will be expensive, it will be less expensive than a nuclear energy system that serves the same purpose, and likely cheaper than a system with any substantial amount of nuclear energy. > Given the lack of commercial built and operated hydrogen wind farms This is a completely bogus argument in an environment where natural gas is still plentiful and legal and its carbon largely untaxed. The CO2 tax needed to get to wind farms + hydrogen being competitive is likely much less than the CO2 needed to get nuclear to be competitive (against natural gas).

by dv_dt 6y ago

coolspot 6y ago

Theoretically, yes. With enough batteries and 2x-3x power production over demand you can have 100% renewable grid. It might require to cut amazon forest and cover it with solar panels, but possible, yes.

pfdietz 6y ago
One does not need 2-3x average power production over average demand. With some combination of transmission, batteries, and (importantly) hydrogen storage, the overcapacity and curtailment needed can be quite modest.

belorn 6y ago

Is it possible to create enough gas powered power plants and hydrogen storage facilities to have 100% of a nations capacity running for several weeks during the winter? Yes. Can it all be generated from ocean based windfarms with pipelines? Yes. Will it be cheap? No. Just the production side, the cost in a 2019 study put the numbers around $7-9 per kg of hydrogen. This does not take into the account the cost of the pipeline, the storage facility, or the gas powered power plant. Remember that return of investment only occurs when demands actually exceeds that of cheaper renewable production, unless government steps in and adds subsidies like it does today with oil. Is massive amounts of hydrogen a cheaper and safer alternative to nuclear? Given the lack of commercial built and operated hydrogen wind farms I suspect the answer is no on the commercial side. On the safety side it would be interesting to hear about operating large liquid hydrogen pipelines and storage facilities.

pfdietz 6y ago
> Will it be cheap? No. Any energy system large enough to power the world will be a very expensive thing. Fortunately, the world economy is also a very large thing, and can pay for it. We can say with some confidence that while this renewable energy system will be expensive, it will be less expensive than a nuclear energy system that serves the same purpose, and likely cheaper than a system with any substantial amount of nuclear energy. > Given the lack of commercial built and operated hydrogen wind farms This is a completely bogus argument in an environment where natural gas is still plentiful and legal and its carbon largely untaxed. The CO2 tax needed to get to wind farms + hydrogen being competitive is likely much less than the CO2 needed to get nuclear to be competitive (against natural gas).