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Solar coupled with modern batteries, obviously. No hand waving required. It’s fine for other sources (even nuclear) to fill in the gaps. Also no need for accus

by natch 6y ago

Solar coupled with modern batteries, obviously. No hand waving required. It’s fine for other sources (even nuclear) to fill in the gaps. Also no need for accusations of emotional freak outs. I think the nuclear side has its fair share of deluded people who for some reason pretend that both solar and batteries are not improving year by year. And who pretend that solar advocates demand solar-only solutions. It’s just not the case.

EricE 6y ago
Where are you going to get enough batteries? If batteries were viable Elon wouldn’t just be talking about them. Batteries are no where near the cost efficiency of, say, pumped hydro. Nor can batteries touch the overall capacity of pumped hydro. And pumped hydro can’t happen just anywhere - you need the right physical environment for it to be effective. So yeah, unless you have something more concrete than “batteries, obviously” it is hand waving.
- natch 5y ago
  > Elon wouldn’t just be talking about them. Just talking? He’s making them at scale.
LorenPechtel 6y ago
Batteries aren't going to cut it. The last I checked batteries are an expensive source of power even if you can charge them for free. The cost of the battery / cycles it can deliver is already more than the cost of electricity in most places. We need a major breakthrough in storage before renewables are more than a way to reduce fossil fuel use in powerplants. (You still need the plants, just not as much fuel for them.) There is also somewhat of a use case for renewables for powering things that can make do with highly unreliable power. Consider, for example, a desalination plant. The heart of the plant is pumping water through membranes--but do you really need to do that? Lets build our plant differently, build a storage system high enough up that gravity provides the pressure. When you have power you run the pumps to fill the storage system, when you don't have power you don't run the pumps. You need bigger pumps and you need a big storage tank but it can be done. Or flip the scenario--don't pump the seawater in the first place. Place your desalination plant on the ocean floor and use your pumps to extract the fresh water. In this case you need fresh water storage underwater rather than salt water storage up high.
- pfdietz 6y ago
  Let's look at results from a model. https://model.energy/ https://model.energy/ In the 2030 cost model they use, batteries are 142 euro/kWh of capacity and 160 euro/kW of power. This (using 2011 weather data, along with various other assumptions, and also includes use of hydrogen) gives "synthetic baseload" in the US for 53.7 euro/MWh, cheaper than nuclear. The LCOS in batteries and (even more so) in hydrogen is higher than the cost of electricity, but that's ok. (If you look at other countries, or specific states in the US, the results vary but remain broadly similar. The mix of solar vs. wind can change a lot though. Places like Poland are the worst for renewables in this model.)
mirrorlake 6y ago
The demand for battery materials could eventually exceed the pace that we can mine them, so the world's grids will need significantly more types of non-battery energy storage like pumped hydro and flywheels. This will ensure that the market for grid storage materials doesn't have to compete with the car market's growing demand for batteries. There are a few new flywheel plants that have popped up in the US in recent years, and it'll be interesting to compare the material costs and benefits over the coming decades.

by natch 6y ago

EricE 6y ago

Where are you going to get enough batteries? If batteries were viable Elon wouldn’t just be talking about them. Batteries are no where near the cost efficiency of, say, pumped hydro. Nor can batteries touch the overall capacity of pumped hydro. And pumped hydro can’t happen just anywhere - you need the right physical environment for it to be effective. So yeah, unless you have something more concrete than “batteries, obviously” it is hand waving.

natch 5y ago
> Elon wouldn’t just be talking about them. Just talking? He’s making them at scale.

LorenPechtel 6y ago

Batteries aren't going to cut it. The last I checked batteries are an expensive source of power even if you can charge them for free. The cost of the battery / cycles it can deliver is already more than the cost of electricity in most places. We need a major breakthrough in storage before renewables are more than a way to reduce fossil fuel use in powerplants. (You still need the plants, just not as much fuel for them.) There is also somewhat of a use case for renewables for powering things that can make do with highly unreliable power. Consider, for example, a desalination plant. The heart of the plant is pumping water through membranes--but do you really need to do that? Lets build our plant differently, build a storage system high enough up that gravity provides the pressure. When you have power you run the pumps to fill the storage system, when you don't have power you don't run the pumps. You need bigger pumps and you need a big storage tank but it can be done. Or flip the scenario--don't pump the seawater in the first place. Place your desalination plant on the ocean floor and use your pumps to extract the fresh water. In this case you need fresh water storage underwater rather than salt water storage up high.

pfdietz 6y ago
Let's look at results from a model. https://model.energy/ https://model.energy/ In the 2030 cost model they use, batteries are 142 euro/kWh of capacity and 160 euro/kW of power. This (using 2011 weather data, along with various other assumptions, and also includes use of hydrogen) gives "synthetic baseload" in the US for 53.7 euro/MWh, cheaper than nuclear. The LCOS in batteries and (even more so) in hydrogen is higher than the cost of electricity, but that's ok. (If you look at other countries, or specific states in the US, the results vary but remain broadly similar. The mix of solar vs. wind can change a lot though. Places like Poland are the worst for renewables in this model.)

mirrorlake 6y ago

The demand for battery materials could eventually exceed the pace that we can mine them, so the world's grids will need significantly more types of non-battery energy storage like pumped hydro and flywheels. This will ensure that the market for grid storage materials doesn't have to compete with the car market's growing demand for batteries. There are a few new flywheel plants that have popped up in the US in recent years, and it'll be interesting to compare the material costs and benefits over the coming decades.