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I interviewed Ray Kurzweil not long after "The Singularity Is Near" came out. I asked him about a concept that he brought up in the book but didn't get much att
by ilamont 6y ago
I interviewed Ray Kurzweil not long after "The Singularity Is Near" came out. I asked him about a concept that he brought up in the book but didn't get much attention in light of the other more startling predictions he made. Excerpt follows:
Q: In the Singularity is Near, you also discussed an intriguing invention, which you called the "Document Image and Storage Invention", or DAISI for short. But you concluded that it really wouldn't work out. Could you talk a little bit about that?
RK: ... The big challenge, which I think is actually important almost philosophical challenge -- it might sound like a dull issue, like how do you format a database, so you can retrieve information, that sounds pretty technical. The real key issue is that software formats are constantly changing. People say, "well, gee, if we could backup our brains and I talk about how that will be feasible some decades from now. Then the digital version of you could be immortal, but software doesn't live forever, in fact it doesn't live very long at all if you don't care about it if you don't continually update it to new formats.
Try going back 20 years to some old formats, some old programming language. Try resuscitating some information on some PDP1 magnetic tapes. I mean even if you could get the hardware to work, the software formats are completely alien and [using] a different operating system and nobody is there to support these formats anymore. And that continues. There is this continual change in how that information is formatted. ...
Q: You said there's no technological solution. What about creating standards that would be maintained by the community, or would be widespread enough that future …
We do use standard formats, and the standard formats are continually changed, and the formats are not always backwards compatible. It's a nice goal, but it actually doesn't work. I have in fact electronic information that in fact goes back through many different computer systems. Some of it now I cannot access. In theory I could, or with enough effort, find people to decipher it, but it's not readily accessible. The more backwards you go, the more of a challenge it becomes.
And despite the goal of maintaining standards, or maintaining forward compatibility, or backwards compatibility, it doesn’t really work out that way. Maybe we will improve that. Hard documents are actually the easiest to access. Fairly crude technologies like microfilm or microfiche which basically has documents are very easy to access.
So ironically, the most primitive formats are the ones that are easiest.
As a genealogist, I have thought a lot about solutions to preserve data long term that don't have physical limitations of microfiche or paper media, or the problem of computers crashing, subscriptions lapsing, or for-profit online services shutting down (see "Ancestry deleted 10 years of my family's history", https://slate.com/technology/2015/04/myfamily-shuttered-ancestry-com-deleted-10-years-of-my-family-history.html https://slate.com/technology/2015/04/myfamily-shuttered-ance...)
Maybe 10 years ago, a few people in the Silicon Valley futurist community came up with the idea of a ball or disc etched with gradually smaller text an excerpt from the Old Testament, translated into multiple languages. It was kind of a Rosetta Stone ideal ... The plan was these balls/discs could be seeded across the world so even if there was some great calamity or the loss of written languages, future civilizations could resurrect them.
There are many limitations of applying this idea to genealogy or any written record, including cost and the inability to update the text.
It made me think that a more realistic solution to the genealogy preservation problem aligns with Kurzweil's "most primitive" take: Preserve core records on paper, share them widely with relatives and cousins, and use an easy-to-understand versioning system. This could also be applied to other family records, such as the grandfather's notes.
We know high quality paper can last hundreds of years. It can be easily copied and spread, potentially allowing the information to last thousands of years, as evidenced by Roman, Greek, and early Chinese dynastic records and literature that can still be read today.
- beckingz 6y agoso for digital formats .txt files?
- _underfl0w_ 6y agoThat still leaves unanswered questions: What encoding - ASCII or Unicode? UTF-8, or UTF-16? What type of filesystem - FAT32, exFAT, ext4? What physical medium - HDD or SSD? OP's question goes deeper than just the file format.
- jodrellblank 6y ago.txt isn't a format - what size will the bytes/words be, what character encoding will they use (EBCDIC? ANSI? ASCII? Fixed width UTF-32?, variable width UTF8?, Next decade's AI-designed super-efficient encoding?) and what human language will they be encoding? Aramaic? Medieval French? As he said we keep using "standard formats" but the standards keep changing, and so does the world around it. .txt doesn't address the content - something like tables of rainfall needs structure inside the text rather than runs of words. CSV? XML? Markdown or HTML tables? Audio, image, video, or more intricate things like a 3D model of a building? And it doesn't address the hardware (that PDP tape drive), who has a laptop with an floppy, Iomega Zip, CD or DVD or Blu-Ray drive at all these days? What are you going to do with grandad's SSD with built-in encryption?
- ilamont 6y agoETA: A longer excerpt and details about the Rosetta Disk and NanoRosetta projects: http://blogs.harvard.edu/lamont/2021/05/05/ray-kurzweil-on-long-term-document-storage-and-the-genealogy-connection/ http://blogs.harvard.edu/lamont/2021/05/05/ray-kurzweil-on-l... "The Rosetta Disk is the physical companion of the Rosetta Digital Language Archive, and a prototype of one facet of The Long Now Foundation’s 10,000-Year Library. The Rosetta Disk is intended to be a durable archive of human languages, as well as an aesthetic object that suggests a journey of the imagination across culture and history." (https://rosettaproject.org/disk/concept/ https://rosettaproject.org/disk/concept/) "For the production of nano inscribed nickel wafers or plates, the archival data in the form of pdf format is first submitted and organized sequentially or indexed systematically. After file conversion and other preparation for NanoRosetta processing, the documents or other data are then recorded onto a glass wafer by modulating a laser beam in a spiral or concentric manner using a polar raster direct laser etch. A matrix process in electroforming creates “father” nickel master from the inscribed glass wafer. An intermediate “mother” and final ”son” can then be generated from this nickel “father” master wafer. For mass production, polymer copies can also be provided in lieu of nickel “sons.” We also have the ability to combine digital data (CD or DVD) and analog human readable formats on the same disc." (https://nanorosetta.com/technology/ https://nanorosetta.com/technology/)