3 ms·
> We are hundreds of years from that thermodynamic limit at our current exponential growth rate …assuming Earth is a perfect blackbody, which it is not. > It
by stouset 6y ago
> We are hundreds of years from that thermodynamic limit at our current exponential growth rate
…assuming Earth is a perfect blackbody, which it is not.
> It is also quite likely that extraplanetary energy sources could be available by then.
This is irrelevant. As long as that power is delivered to Earth, it doesn’t matter how or where we generate or collect it.
I mean, just take a step back a second. In the best case scenario, where we completely strip the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, methane, and any other greenhouse gases, we have maybe five generations before we have to completely halt our energy growth or we’ll literally bake the Earth and everyone and everything on it.
We can’t even get people to believe in a global pandemic, much less take it seriously enough to wear masks and vaccinate. What do you think are the odds we’ll convince everyone to rein in energy production globally to avoid catastrophe here? Especially when that means either a) telling the world’s impoverished that we simply can’t let them continue improving their lifestyle, or b) telling the world’s rich that they’re going to have to cut back dramatically. Do either of those sound like platforms we’ll readily elect politicians on around the globe?
And this is just one axis: energy. Humanity faces dozens of these problems simultaneously, all as a simple outcome of the mind-blowing scale we operate at. The oceans are being fished empty. Aquifers for farmland are quickly being depleted of water across the globe. I mean, we’re even running out of sand!
It’s true and I hope it’s uncontroversial that we can’t continue exponentially growing into a finite space. My fear, which appears to be founded by all the evidence I can find, is that we’ve already passed the point where we can even continue things as-is no matter how much we move to solar and wind, aquaponic farms, and electric cars. All of those things require resources too, and even if it’s less it’s likely still too much.
> I'm sort of unclear where you are goin with your argument? Are you arguing we need to kill of people or economically retard developing countries energy use?
My point is that our current situation of resource usage cannot last much longer. This is unavoidable fact. We can opt to find ways to dramatically cut back—far past current feel-good greening measures—or it will happen automatically for us.
As I said this is an uncomfortable reality. Your need to assume that I’m proposing nefarious, evil, and fascist solutions when I’m merely pointing out the unavoidable truth of our predicament should only highlight that more.
I have proposed no solutions because I personally don’t believe any achievable ones exist at this point. We as a species will continue to consume all available resources until the moment we can’t and then… incredibly bad things will follow. I don’t know how to stop it any more than you do. But it doesn’t bring me comfort to believe that vague promises
of human ingenuity will somehow overcome these very real problems.
- shkkmo 6y ago> My point is that our current situation of resource usage cannot last much longer. This is unavoidable fact. We can opt to find ways to dramatically cut back—far past current feel-good greening measures—or it will happen automatically for us. This is blantantly false. How does an energy budget that is multiple orders of magnitude larger than our current usage imply we must reduce energy usage below current levels? What is the "automatic" mechanism that will curtail our energy usage below current levels? You arguments don't make any sense and seem completely pointless. If you really don't believe there are any solutions, you should shut up and let the optimists work the problem on the off chance you are wrong.