It's a little disappointing that 538 didn't talk about the distribution on this. I'm looking to avoid the one flight that's delayed an hour that means I miss m

It's a little disappointing that 538 didn't talk about the distribution on this. I'm looking to avoid the one flight that's delayed an hour that means I miss my connection because my layover was an hour. Only 5 flights have to arrive on time to hit an average arrival delay of 10 minutes. Those are not favorable odds, as I see them. Especially if it's cutting into my vacation time.