4 ms·
"Destroy capital" is unavoidably speculative, I think. I'm not sure it's the most useful frame. No need to be abstract if we're referring primarily to a few lar
by dalbasal 5y ago
"Destroy capital" is unavoidably speculative, I think. I'm not sure it's the most useful frame. No need to be abstract if we're referring primarily to a few large companies/conglomerates.
Instagram, Whatsapp, Youtube, Android, Doubleclick, etc.. Those acquisitions are undoubtedly a major part of how Google & FB got to here... and here is a good place for shareholders. IMO, it's hard to argue management destroyed value, but we don't ever know alternate realities.
Either way, I think there's a strong case that "competition for monopoly" is the key dynamic here. A business similar to adwords-google but with only 1% of the market share is worth way less than 1% of adwords-google. Think of Yahoo/MSFT's attempts at adwords' runner ups. How much is reddit worth, relative to FB? There are lots of examples. Even if the market does have multiple contenders, the power curve tends to be mighty in modern, software-centric economics.
For a variety of reasons, strong pressure to consolidate appears to be the case often. Whatever those reasons, this creates/describes a strong incentive to consolidate. We know empirically that consolidation happened, and acquisitions played a role. Consolidation also happened in cases where acquisitions didn't play a major/obvious role.
Tax laws are one of those reasons, but not the only ones. There's low interest rates, the laws of other countries, the business cycles, financial markets, etc. It's financial markets that have the operative say on capital creation vs destruction. They value FB highly, and have usually seem pleased with M&A in terms of demand for the stock.
There are also "natural" reasons for M&A, and consolidation more broadly. Software is cheap to replicate/scale and is often winner-take-most. Media is similar. Ad markets (and marketplaces generally) exhibit network effects. Networks (like social networks) exhibit network effects.
IMO the whole theoretical/legal framework of antitrust is quite bougus, in 2021. Monopoly isn't just about pricing power, and whatever else ancient economists observed in previous centuries.
- andrewjl 5y ago> Monopoly isn't just about pricing power, and whatever else ancient economists observed in previous centuries. This understanding of monopoly has only existed since the mid-20th century. Prior to that, the definition of a monopoly was more expansive and included analysis of market & industry structure.
- timy2shoes 5y agoThe start of this line of thought was Robert Bork in 1978: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Antitrust_Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Antitrust_Paradox
- dalbasal 5y agocheers both. I thought these were from the 20s.
- andrewjl 5y agoThe IMO best contemporary overview of the legal issue as it pertains to tech is this piece[1] by Lina Khan. Love the subtle irony I did not catch until today in the title, "Amazon's Antitrust Paradox". It cites and argues the opposite of the Bork piece in many respects. [1] https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-parado...