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> Unfortunately, a sustained population loss would be incompatible with economic growth. Fewer people would mean a decline in business activity, imminent labor

> Unfortunately, a sustained population loss would be incompatible with economic growth. Fewer people would mean a decline in business activity, imminent labor shortages and a worsening age imbalance that would leave more senior citizens without enough caregivers. Same old reasoning that we've heard a million different times. Can't we simply increase immigration when needed. Japan is a bad example because they are a xenophobic population that doesn't accept immigration. Tired of this this bullshit take every single time.

jollybean 6y ago
We live in a different world than 1800-2000 when migration, births, and fossil fuels were the powertrain of growth. The math has changed. Edit: I don't know what the answer is, other than to say 'it's probably not what it was before'.
minikites 6y ago
>Can't we simply increase immigration when needed. Not when you have a major political party doubling down on nativist sentiment and rhetoric. Remember "migrant caravans"? Or midwestern conservative politicians stoking fears of MS-13? Or "When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us." Immigration is scary to many people in the USA and one party deliberately stokes that fear.
- dominotw 6y ago
  Over 10% of US population is estimated to be undocumented. I don't believe these census numbers are accurate at all, we are doing fine in terms of importing young population.
  - minikites 6y ago
    >Over 10% of US population is estimated to be undocumented. Not even close, it's closer to 3-4%: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/Pop_Estimate/UnauthImmigrant/unauthorized_immigrant_population_estimates_2015_-_2018.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigra... https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-many-undocumented-immigrants-are-in-the-united-states-and-who-are-they/ https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-many-und... https://www.fairus.org/issue/illegal-immigration/2020-how-many-illegal-aliens-us https://www.fairus.org/issue/illegal-immigration/2020-how-ma... https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauthorized-immigrants-by-state/ https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauth... I have a hunch that any source putting it at >10% is attempting to stoke the same nativist sentiment and rhetoric I mentioned in my parent comment.
    - jollybean 6y ago
      I guess 3.5% is not 'close' to 10% but it's still a very material number, and 'very unhealthy' in terms of managing civil and social infrastructure. 'Undocumented' is just an upside down way of saying 'dirty cheap labour with no rights' which is possibly the greatest guarantee of inequality etc.. They need to be on the books one way or another the issue has to be sorted out.
  - ed25519FUUU 6y ago
    Census counts everyone, included non citizens, regardless of citizenship. That’s why there was controversy adding a “are you a US citizen?” to the questionnaire.
    - dominotw 6y ago
      > Census counts everyone Census doesn't count. People count themselves in census.
      - ed25519FUUU 6y ago
        Can you help me understand your distinction?
- JPKab 6y ago
  Cheap labor lowers wages and undermines unions ability to negotiate. In the long term the additional demand generated by immigrants balances out and things are fine. In the short term many forms of labor are devalued and people who are already live here fine at their wages are undercut. The idea that anti-immigrant sentiment is purely driven by racism isn't accurate. As is typical on internet forums nuance is always lost when it comes to these kinds of issues. My wife and her family are immigrants FYI so when I say these things I'm not some bigot. I'm just a guy that used to work in the construction industry and saw the impact on wages for lower skilled professions.
  - minikites 6y ago
    If we legitimized the immigration status of those people, why wouldn't they join the very same unions and keep wages high for everyone? The villains here are the capital class and their interest in keeping the rest of us in conflict with each other, not struggling immigrants.
    - dominotw 6y ago
      > If we legitimized the immigration status of those people, why wouldn't they join the very same unions and keep wages high for everyone? Because of this per the unions https://twitter.com/unitehere/status/1383450861595074563 https://twitter.com/unitehere/status/1383450861595074563 Labor unions have long lobbied against legal visas for immigrants. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-agencies-pact-boosts-seasonal-visas-in-blow-to-unions https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-agenc... They lobbied obama admin to cut these visas ( and others) by half from bush era high. "displaces U.S. workers while suppressing industry-wide wages. " > The villains here are the capital class You seem to have it all mixed up. 'Capital class' lobbied hard and reversed Trumps visa bans and are major lobbiest for legal h2 visas.
      - minikites 6y ago
        I'm not talking about visas, just make them citizens with the same rights as the rest of us. Then they can join those unions on an equal footing.

jollybean 6y ago

We live in a different world than 1800-2000 when migration, births, and fossil fuels were the powertrain of growth. The math has changed. Edit: I don't know what the answer is, other than to say 'it's probably not what it was before'.

minikites 6y ago

>Can't we simply increase immigration when needed. Not when you have a major political party doubling down on nativist sentiment and rhetoric. Remember "migrant caravans"? Or midwestern conservative politicians stoking fears of MS-13? Or "When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us." Immigration is scary to many people in the USA and one party deliberately stokes that fear.

dominotw 6y ago
Over 10% of US population is estimated to be undocumented. I don't believe these census numbers are accurate at all, we are doing fine in terms of importing young population.
- minikites 6y ago
  >Over 10% of US population is estimated to be undocumented. Not even close, it's closer to 3-4%: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/Pop_Estimate/UnauthImmigrant/unauthorized_immigrant_population_estimates_2015_-_2018.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigra... https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-many-undocumented-immigrants-are-in-the-united-states-and-who-are-they/ https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-many-und... https://www.fairus.org/issue/illegal-immigration/2020-how-many-illegal-aliens-us https://www.fairus.org/issue/illegal-immigration/2020-how-ma... https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauthorized-immigrants-by-state/ https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauth... I have a hunch that any source putting it at >10% is attempting to stoke the same nativist sentiment and rhetoric I mentioned in my parent comment.
  - jollybean 6y ago
    I guess 3.5% is not 'close' to 10% but it's still a very material number, and 'very unhealthy' in terms of managing civil and social infrastructure. 'Undocumented' is just an upside down way of saying 'dirty cheap labour with no rights' which is possibly the greatest guarantee of inequality etc.. They need to be on the books one way or another the issue has to be sorted out.
- ed25519FUUU 6y ago
  Census counts everyone, included non citizens, regardless of citizenship. That’s why there was controversy adding a “are you a US citizen?” to the questionnaire.
  - dominotw 6y ago
    > Census counts everyone Census doesn't count. People count themselves in census.
    - ed25519FUUU 6y ago
      Can you help me understand your distinction?
JPKab 6y ago
Cheap labor lowers wages and undermines unions ability to negotiate. In the long term the additional demand generated by immigrants balances out and things are fine. In the short term many forms of labor are devalued and people who are already live here fine at their wages are undercut. The idea that anti-immigrant sentiment is purely driven by racism isn't accurate. As is typical on internet forums nuance is always lost when it comes to these kinds of issues. My wife and her family are immigrants FYI so when I say these things I'm not some bigot. I'm just a guy that used to work in the construction industry and saw the impact on wages for lower skilled professions.
- minikites 6y ago
  If we legitimized the immigration status of those people, why wouldn't they join the very same unions and keep wages high for everyone? The villains here are the capital class and their interest in keeping the rest of us in conflict with each other, not struggling immigrants.
  - dominotw 6y ago
    > If we legitimized the immigration status of those people, why wouldn't they join the very same unions and keep wages high for everyone? Because of this per the unions https://twitter.com/unitehere/status/1383450861595074563 https://twitter.com/unitehere/status/1383450861595074563 Labor unions have long lobbied against legal visas for immigrants. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-agencies-pact-boosts-seasonal-visas-in-blow-to-unions https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-agenc... They lobbied obama admin to cut these visas ( and others) by half from bush era high. "displaces U.S. workers while suppressing industry-wide wages. " > The villains here are the capital class You seem to have it all mixed up. 'Capital class' lobbied hard and reversed Trumps visa bans and are major lobbiest for legal h2 visas.
    - minikites 6y ago
      I'm not talking about visas, just make them citizens with the same rights as the rest of us. Then they can join those unions on an equal footing.