3 ms·

https://slideplayer.com/slide/6081467/18/images/12/The+scale+of+intelligent+minds%3A+a+parochial+view..jpg https://slideplayer.com/slide/6081467/18/images/12/Th

https://slideplayer.com/slide/6081467/18/images/12/The+scale+of+intelligent+minds%3A+a+parochial+view..jpg https://slideplayer.com/slide/6081467/18/images/12/The+scale... It depends on if you think writing ability is more like the top graph, or the bottom graph. If it's like the top graph, humans have plenty of time to adopt AI tools, and incorporate them into the writing process. If it's like the bottom graph, then GPT-4 comes out in 12 months and is human equivalent, and GPT-5 comes out a year after that and is a better writer than any human could hope to be.

Animats 6y ago
Progress so far is that GPT-1 could produce a coherent sentence but stopped making sense after a few lines. GPT-2 could produce a coherent paragraph, but several paragraphs strung together made no sense. GPT-3 is coherent for about a page or screen, but not a chapter. A page is good enough for the clickbait industry.