The probability of this particular project failing is unrelated to the fraction of previous failures. Those past failures serve only as a warning. When you ju

The probability of this particular project failing is unrelated to the fraction of previous failures. Those past failures serve only as a warning. When you jump out of a plane, you don’t just say “99.999% of people survived this before, so I’ll probably be fine”, you carefully triple-check your gear, and you abort if you get a gut feeling something isn’t right.