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What could go wrong? (serious question!)

by tedd4u 5y ago

molszanski 5y ago
As far as I understand they are using a gene drive which is risky. Gerne drive is an artificial technique to force gene propagation. The risk lies in mutation + gene drive.
cptskippy 5y ago
We could find out what role mosquitoes play in the environment when it collapses suddenly.
- WalterGR 5y ago
  I believe that we’ve already found that out via irradiated mosquitos, but I don’t have a link to a paper handy.
- bedobi 5y ago
  Mosquitoes do play a role in the environment. This particular one doesn't really though. No need to take the word of some stranger on the internet, there's plenty of very knowledgeable, very environmentally minded people who agree and have explained why.
fractal618 5y ago
Maybe a global pandemic of something stupid like that. Who knows
gridspy 5y ago
The modified genes (or a later mutation) provide some advantage to their offspring, combined with a failed self-destruct. That causes the population of Mosquitoes to become more troublesome. Hopefully unlikely!!
echelon 5y ago
If mosquitos are a keystone species in the food web, population decline could have drastic effects. We don't currently believe that they are, however.
- op00to 5y ago
  Doesn’t matter. This mosquito is not native to the area that they’re testing in, and even if it was native only makes up 2% of total mosquito population in the test area. This is all upside.
multiplegeorges 5y ago
The eradication of a seemingly unimportant species of mosquito that has an unknown but very important link to some other much more important species. If that were to happen (seems very unlikely, but not zero chance), they could see some ecosystem disruption they didn't anticipate. The worst, worst possible case would be this gene getting somehow into the general mosquito population and making mosquitoes extinct. That would be a disaster since they are an important food source for so many other species. Presumably, the much-smarter-than-me scientists have thought of this.
- red75prime 5y ago
  > That would be a disaster since they are an important food source for so many other species. Or it wouldn't be a disaster since there's no species that exclusively feed on mosquitos.
- titzer 5y ago
  So, Linus Upson, former VP of Chrome, left Chrome to work on this. He explained it to me thusly: The species of mosquito targeted here is actually a pest that follows humans around. It tends to only infest areas where humans have settled and mostly preys on humans. Where we go, it goes. The genetic modification here is designed to shut down their breeding patterns. It targets that specific species and is far, far better for the local ecosystems than pesticides or other measures. Basically, it's trying to kill off a pest species we bring with us.
  - RcouF1uZ4gsC 5y ago
    It seems the FUD regarding this is very similar to anti-vax FUD. Yes, if you are not careful vaccines can cause massive problems. In addition, theoretical downsides that have been considered and deemed unlikely by the scientific community (like making it seem that disease carrying mosquitos are an irreplaceable food source) are trotted out again and again. In addition, just like with vaccines, the risk of doing nothing (kids die from measles, etc in the case of vaccines, and kids die from malaria and Zika, etc in the case of mosquito control).
gridspy 5y ago
Female self-destruct gene somehow ends up in a different species. Via virus (which can transfer DNA segments) perhaps. Hopefully far-fetched.
- avodonosov 5y ago
  Or simply interspecies reproduction.
  - avodonosov 5y ago
    A funny part in the wikipedia article: > Among insects, so-called killer bees were accidentally created during an attempt to breed a strain of bees that would both produce more honey and be better adapted to tropical conditions. It was done by crossing a European honey bee and an African bee. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_(biology) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_(biology)
- smiley1437 5y ago
  Yeah it would suck if a freak viral accident transferred this to humans, we then get to live through Frank Herbert’s ‘The White Plague’ (where men are carriers for a disease that kills only women) Inheritable fertility manipulation and gene drives should be applied very, very carefully
fractal618 5y ago
Might cascade into the collapse of a few ecosystems. Who knows? Not my problem. All joking aside, I hope everything works out okay.
- BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
  I’m sure there is a lab somewhere with pristine, non-GMO affected mosquito population and they can reintroduce them if need be.
  - tspike 5y ago
    Isn't the point that this mosquito wipes out pristine, non-GMO affected mosquito populations?
wittyreference 5y ago
They comprise a large percentage of the caloric intake of a lot of bird species, which are already fragile due to ecosystem fracturing. This could result in a hit to bird populations - and if the mosquitos adapt and rebound, the birds are unlikely to rebound nearly as quickly, allowing for a potential enormous boom in total mosquito population.
- wittyreference 5y ago
  I don’t really know why this prompted straight up downvotes. These are the exact concerns voiced in multiple Nature articles over the past decade or so.
NOGDP 5y ago
I wonder of the same mechanism that allow mosquitoes to transfer disease also works as a vaccination for animals?
lemmonii 5y ago
1. Females evolve to detect males with the bad genes. Population will dip but recover. By opening this evolutionary pathway we could enhance the mosquitoes in unintended ways. 2. Some males will evolve genes which disable the sterilization gene. By opening this evolutionary pathway we could enhance the mosquitoes in unintended ways.
- asdff 5y ago
  Populations are always mutating at the same rate and selection is always occurring no matter what you do.

What could go wrong? (serious question!)

by tedd4u 5y ago

What could go wrong? (serious question!)

As far as I understand they are using a gene drive which is risky. Gerne drive is an artificial technique to force gene propagation. The risk lies in mutation + gene drive.

cptskippy 5y ago

We could find out what role mosquitoes play in the environment when it collapses suddenly.

WalterGR 5y ago
I believe that we’ve already found that out via irradiated mosquitos, but I don’t have a link to a paper handy.
bedobi 5y ago
Mosquitoes do play a role in the environment. This particular one doesn't really though. No need to take the word of some stranger on the internet, there's plenty of very knowledgeable, very environmentally minded people who agree and have explained why.

fractal618 5y ago

Maybe a global pandemic of something stupid like that. Who knows

gridspy 5y ago

The modified genes (or a later mutation) provide some advantage to their offspring, combined with a failed self-destruct. That causes the population of Mosquitoes to become more troublesome. Hopefully unlikely!!

echelon 5y ago

If mosquitos are a keystone species in the food web, population decline could have drastic effects. We don't currently believe that they are, however.

op00to 5y ago
Doesn’t matter. This mosquito is not native to the area that they’re testing in, and even if it was native only makes up 2% of total mosquito population in the test area. This is all upside.

multiplegeorges 5y ago

The eradication of a seemingly unimportant species of mosquito that has an unknown but very important link to some other much more important species. If that were to happen (seems very unlikely, but not zero chance), they could see some ecosystem disruption they didn't anticipate. The worst, worst possible case would be this gene getting somehow into the general mosquito population and making mosquitoes extinct. That would be a disaster since they are an important food source for so many other species. Presumably, the much-smarter-than-me scientists have thought of this.

red75prime 5y ago
> That would be a disaster since they are an important food source for so many other species. Or it wouldn't be a disaster since there's no species that exclusively feed on mosquitos.
titzer 5y ago
So, Linus Upson, former VP of Chrome, left Chrome to work on this. He explained it to me thusly: The species of mosquito targeted here is actually a pest that follows humans around. It tends to only infest areas where humans have settled and mostly preys on humans. Where we go, it goes. The genetic modification here is designed to shut down their breeding patterns. It targets that specific species and is far, far better for the local ecosystems than pesticides or other measures. Basically, it's trying to kill off a pest species we bring with us.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 5y ago
  It seems the FUD regarding this is very similar to anti-vax FUD. Yes, if you are not careful vaccines can cause massive problems. In addition, theoretical downsides that have been considered and deemed unlikely by the scientific community (like making it seem that disease carrying mosquitos are an irreplaceable food source) are trotted out again and again. In addition, just like with vaccines, the risk of doing nothing (kids die from measles, etc in the case of vaccines, and kids die from malaria and Zika, etc in the case of mosquito control).

gridspy 5y ago

Female self-destruct gene somehow ends up in a different species. Via virus (which can transfer DNA segments) perhaps. Hopefully far-fetched.

avodonosov 5y ago
Or simply interspecies reproduction.
- avodonosov 5y ago
  A funny part in the wikipedia article: > Among insects, so-called killer bees were accidentally created during an attempt to breed a strain of bees that would both produce more honey and be better adapted to tropical conditions. It was done by crossing a European honey bee and an African bee. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_(biology) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_(biology)
smiley1437 5y ago
Yeah it would suck if a freak viral accident transferred this to humans, we then get to live through Frank Herbert’s ‘The White Plague’ (where men are carriers for a disease that kills only women) Inheritable fertility manipulation and gene drives should be applied very, very carefully

fractal618 5y ago

Might cascade into the collapse of a few ecosystems. Who knows? Not my problem. All joking aside, I hope everything works out okay.

BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
I’m sure there is a lab somewhere with pristine, non-GMO affected mosquito population and they can reintroduce them if need be.
- tspike 5y ago
  Isn't the point that this mosquito wipes out pristine, non-GMO affected mosquito populations?

wittyreference 5y ago

They comprise a large percentage of the caloric intake of a lot of bird species, which are already fragile due to ecosystem fracturing. This could result in a hit to bird populations - and if the mosquitos adapt and rebound, the birds are unlikely to rebound nearly as quickly, allowing for a potential enormous boom in total mosquito population.

wittyreference 5y ago
I don’t really know why this prompted straight up downvotes. These are the exact concerns voiced in multiple Nature articles over the past decade or so.

NOGDP 5y ago

I wonder of the same mechanism that allow mosquitoes to transfer disease also works as a vaccination for animals?

lemmonii 5y ago

1. Females evolve to detect males with the bad genes. Population will dip but recover. By opening this evolutionary pathway we could enhance the mosquitoes in unintended ways. 2. Some males will evolve genes which disable the sterilization gene. By opening this evolutionary pathway we could enhance the mosquitoes in unintended ways.

asdff 5y ago
Populations are always mutating at the same rate and selection is always occurring no matter what you do.