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Imagine a dictator getting to power who was unlikely to die from natural causes for another 150-200 years.

by Digit-Al 5y ago

generalizations 5y ago
That's a plot point of the Expanse.
vagab0nd 5y ago
Right, while we are at it, let's also stop curing for diseases so that, well, dictators can die from them?
elihu 5y ago
Or even not a dictator, just any person of authority holding their post for centuries. This was observed in scientific contexts by Max Planck: > A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. . . . An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents: it rarely happens that Saul becomes Paul. What does happen is that its opponents gradually die out, and that the growing generation is familiarized with the ideas from the beginning: another instance of the fact that the future lies with the youth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle This is generally paraphrased as "science advances one funeral at a time". Long lifespans would probably correspond to society changing more slowly and making more conservative choices. On the plus side, maybe those in power would have more incentive to take the long view, and optimize for results that won't happen for a long time. Climate change might perhaps be taken more seriously if our elderly leaders had a plausible chance of living long enough to see coastal cities underwater.
- Digit-Al 5y ago
  Some good points, that have crossed my mind as well. I think I tend to a more pessimistic view of those who strive to become our leaders. Experience seems to show that a more likely outcome is for them to strive desperately to save themselves from the coming disaster at the expense of everyone else rather than looking for ways to avert the disaster. After all, building a floating palace sounds a lot easier than transforming society :-/

Imagine a dictator getting to power who was unlikely to die from natural causes for another 150-200 years.

generalizations 5y ago

That's a plot point of the Expanse.

vagab0nd 5y ago

Right, while we are at it, let's also stop curing for diseases so that, well, dictators can die from them?

elihu 5y ago

Or even not a dictator, just any person of authority holding their post for centuries. This was observed in scientific contexts by Max Planck: > A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. . . . An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents: it rarely happens that Saul becomes Paul. What does happen is that its opponents gradually die out, and that the growing generation is familiarized with the ideas from the beginning: another instance of the fact that the future lies with the youth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle This is generally paraphrased as "science advances one funeral at a time". Long lifespans would probably correspond to society changing more slowly and making more conservative choices. On the plus side, maybe those in power would have more incentive to take the long view, and optimize for results that won't happen for a long time. Climate change might perhaps be taken more seriously if our elderly leaders had a plausible chance of living long enough to see coastal cities underwater.

Digit-Al 5y ago
Some good points, that have crossed my mind as well. I think I tend to a more pessimistic view of those who strive to become our leaders. Experience seems to show that a more likely outcome is for them to strive desperately to save themselves from the coming disaster at the expense of everyone else rather than looking for ways to avert the disaster. After all, building a floating palace sounds a lot easier than transforming society :-/