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>Estimations can be wrong, but that doesn't mean progress is impossible. No but it does mean, when estimations or estimators are consistently wrong, that they

>Estimations can be wrong, but that doesn't mean progress is impossible. No but it does mean, when estimations or estimators are consistently wrong, that they should lose credibility. If estimates are wildly wrong what good are they besides gas-lighting malinvestment? Theranos estimated that it could do blood tests on a very small sample. Juicero estimated that it could sell a several thousand dollar juicer... Biggest media farce I forgot: where the heck are Amazon's flying delivery drones? See the fallacy "false dilemma." Estimations can be wrong and progress can be possible. Both can be true.

avmich 6y ago
> No but it does mean, when estimations or estimators are consistently wrong, that they should lose credibility. There could be different points of view regarding Mars expeditions - as well as self-driving cars - and while some groups announce 10 years achievements, others could be more cautious. I remember how just some 15 years ago groups interested in Mars were collecting criteria for what would constitute readiness to fly to Mars - not when we'll fly, but what we'll need to know to estimate when we'll fly. List of items wasn't short. Given that SpaceX was in its infancy, no tools of Starship caliber were given much weight. Now we're in seriously different situation - and that's regarding self-driving cars too, we came a long way from 2005 DARPA challenge. We can estimate better - both Mars advancements and cars autonomy perspectives.