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> The demand is there. Let's talk when covid is over. It wouldn't be the first time it drops 80%

by NicoJuicy 6y ago

gruez 6y ago
And it wouldn't be the first time it rebounded.
- thathndude 6y ago
  This response doesn’t make any sense. It’s not pulling back right now.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
scientismer 6y ago
Why would Covid drive up the price of Bitcoin? Sure, the pandemic is being used for attempted government power grasps, but those won't go away with Covid.
- dehrmann 6y ago
  Halfway the same thing that's driving the prices of stocks and pokemon cards: people with extra cash from stimulus checks, spare time, and fomo. "Crypto being the future of finance" is a story people tell themselves to justify the price of bitcoin, and while some flavor of blockchain tech could someday back parts of finance, it won't be bitcoin. Buying bitcoin is a bet that more people will buy bitcoin.
  - scientismer 6y ago
    Ok I forgot about the money printing, which may or may not stop after Covid. But I think people buy BTC as an alternativ to gold, not because of some banking narrative. The question is still what would be actually good investments. Maybe everything will crash when the money printing stops, but then some things will crash harder than others. Gold will probably remain gold.
    - dehrmann 6y ago
      > people buy BTC as an alternative to gold That's a reasonable premise, but the price of gold is flat YoY. Gold actually peaked in Aug. 2020. You'd think that at least some of the bitcoin interest would have gone to gold, but it hasn't. Maybe people are selling gold to buy bitcoin, but again, they don't act similarly. Bitcoin is a speculative asset that has so far gone to the moon. Gold has maintained its value for centuries. You buy them for different reasons. > The question is still what would be actually good investments Not bitcoin. It's a speculative asset. It might still 10x, but it has no fundamentals; it's entirely a bet on what other people will do with bitcoin. You could say buying AAPL is the same, but it makes $90B per year. If bitcoin goes to zero, you're out of luck. If AAPL goes to 0 for no apparent reason, you just found an asset that makes you $90B per year.
      - scientismer 6y ago
        I think you are right, the "small fish" are buying Bitcoin hoping for speculative gains, but also big fish are buying it to hedge against inflation. I don't think Tesla bought Bitcoin speculating on big price rises, for example. It also seems true that hedging against inflation (and socialism and so on) would also be expected to rise the price of gold - but a peak in August 2020 seems consistent with the hedging theory. Also, Bitcoin is easier to smuggle across borders than gold. Maybe it really is taking over. Or maybe the big fish already have so much gold that they want to diversify a bit. AAPL actually produces stuff, but it probably isn't completely risk free, either? People could become too poor to afford their asking prices, and while it may not crash to zero, it could crash enough to hurt (given that it probably is also quite expensive atm).
alwillis 6y ago
1. COVID-19 isn’t going to be “over” in any conventional sense any time soon. There are too many cases and too many variants. 2. With billions of institutional money and billions more waiting until ETFs in the US are approved, Bitcoin has something it didn’t have back in the day: a floor. The days of 80% drops are over.
- dehrmann 6y ago
  > The days of 80% drops are over. I suppose the NASDAQ only lost 75% from Feb 2000 to Sept 2002. Granted, it got back to its 2000 peak 15 years later. My point is that even normal companies traded publicly, held by institutional investors, with government oversight, see large drops after an asset bubble. I see no reason why bitcoin ETFs establish a floor price.
- incrudible 6y ago
  > The days of 80% drops are over. The days of 80% "over night" drops may be over, but a bear market to wipe 80% off the market cap is not out of the question.
  - bingbong70 6y ago
    Already a few billionaires with algos that autobuy on 10-15% drops, this number will increase. We aren't dealing with cs hobbyists, retail investors, and small nest eggs anymore, billionaire adoption is a game changer as Michael Saylor constantly points out... Welcome to BTC cantillonaires with access to ~unlimited leverage courtesy of central banks.
    - incrudible 6y ago
      If you have unlimited leverage to buy Bitcoin, you have unlimited leverage to buy any other asset. All the billionaires in the world are worth 11 trillion dollars. How much are they realistically going to allocate to Bitcoin, to support a >1 trillion market cap? Bitcoin is like gold in that it just "sits there", it doesn't do any work. If gold can drop 30% over a few months, despite all the pandemic fears, then Bitcoin can drop 80% for just not being that interesting anymore, compared to other assets.

> The demand is there. Let's talk when covid is over. It wouldn't be the first time it drops 80%

gruez 6y ago

And it wouldn't be the first time it rebounded.

thathndude 6y ago
This response doesn’t make any sense. It’s not pulling back right now.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

scientismer 6y ago

Why would Covid drive up the price of Bitcoin? Sure, the pandemic is being used for attempted government power grasps, but those won't go away with Covid.

dehrmann 6y ago
Halfway the same thing that's driving the prices of stocks and pokemon cards: people with extra cash from stimulus checks, spare time, and fomo. "Crypto being the future of finance" is a story people tell themselves to justify the price of bitcoin, and while some flavor of blockchain tech could someday back parts of finance, it won't be bitcoin. Buying bitcoin is a bet that more people will buy bitcoin.
- scientismer 6y ago
  Ok I forgot about the money printing, which may or may not stop after Covid. But I think people buy BTC as an alternativ to gold, not because of some banking narrative. The question is still what would be actually good investments. Maybe everything will crash when the money printing stops, but then some things will crash harder than others. Gold will probably remain gold.
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    > people buy BTC as an alternative to gold That's a reasonable premise, but the price of gold is flat YoY. Gold actually peaked in Aug. 2020. You'd think that at least some of the bitcoin interest would have gone to gold, but it hasn't. Maybe people are selling gold to buy bitcoin, but again, they don't act similarly. Bitcoin is a speculative asset that has so far gone to the moon. Gold has maintained its value for centuries. You buy them for different reasons. > The question is still what would be actually good investments Not bitcoin. It's a speculative asset. It might still 10x, but it has no fundamentals; it's entirely a bet on what other people will do with bitcoin. You could say buying AAPL is the same, but it makes $90B per year. If bitcoin goes to zero, you're out of luck. If AAPL goes to 0 for no apparent reason, you just found an asset that makes you $90B per year.
    - scientismer 6y ago
      I think you are right, the "small fish" are buying Bitcoin hoping for speculative gains, but also big fish are buying it to hedge against inflation. I don't think Tesla bought Bitcoin speculating on big price rises, for example. It also seems true that hedging against inflation (and socialism and so on) would also be expected to rise the price of gold - but a peak in August 2020 seems consistent with the hedging theory. Also, Bitcoin is easier to smuggle across borders than gold. Maybe it really is taking over. Or maybe the big fish already have so much gold that they want to diversify a bit. AAPL actually produces stuff, but it probably isn't completely risk free, either? People could become too poor to afford their asking prices, and while it may not crash to zero, it could crash enough to hurt (given that it probably is also quite expensive atm).

alwillis 6y ago

1. COVID-19 isn’t going to be “over” in any conventional sense any time soon. There are too many cases and too many variants. 2. With billions of institutional money and billions more waiting until ETFs in the US are approved, Bitcoin has something it didn’t have back in the day: a floor. The days of 80% drops are over.

dehrmann 6y ago
> The days of 80% drops are over. I suppose the NASDAQ only lost 75% from Feb 2000 to Sept 2002. Granted, it got back to its 2000 peak 15 years later. My point is that even normal companies traded publicly, held by institutional investors, with government oversight, see large drops after an asset bubble. I see no reason why bitcoin ETFs establish a floor price.
incrudible 6y ago
> The days of 80% drops are over. The days of 80% "over night" drops may be over, but a bear market to wipe 80% off the market cap is not out of the question.
- bingbong70 6y ago
  Already a few billionaires with algos that autobuy on 10-15% drops, this number will increase. We aren't dealing with cs hobbyists, retail investors, and small nest eggs anymore, billionaire adoption is a game changer as Michael Saylor constantly points out... Welcome to BTC cantillonaires with access to ~unlimited leverage courtesy of central banks.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    If you have unlimited leverage to buy Bitcoin, you have unlimited leverage to buy any other asset. All the billionaires in the world are worth 11 trillion dollars. How much are they realistically going to allocate to Bitcoin, to support a >1 trillion market cap? Bitcoin is like gold in that it just "sits there", it doesn't do any work. If gold can drop 30% over a few months, despite all the pandemic fears, then Bitcoin can drop 80% for just not being that interesting anymore, compared to other assets.