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Tesla is claiming it is literally around the corner and lets people pay 10kUSD for the privilege. I think this is the difficult part as non-technical people mig

Tesla is claiming it is literally around the corner and lets people pay 10kUSD for the privilege. I think this is the difficult part as non-technical people might take the claims at face value.

maxerickson 5y ago
Yeah, Tesla are acting like clowns. I was just wondering if the statement really meant anything as formulated, because it is qualified with 'at present'. If some other company succeeds next week, it wasn't wrong, because the statement is about right now. And so on for any time in the future.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  If it happens next week I'll be happy to retract it. If it happens in the next decade I'll be amazed. If it happens in the next century I'd still call it a very impressive accomplishment (only I won't be around to do so).
  - ghaff 5y ago
    My prediction is we get to L4 (bounded limited access roads and weather conditions) soon-ish which is a huge win for both convenience and safety. Getting over the "uncanny valley" is a challenge but seems doable. And pretty much punt on dense urban driving as a commercial research project.
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      Imho, dense urban driving should be solved similar to limited access roads and parking lots with a a combination of pedestrian super blocks (such that Barcelona has). Deprioritize vehicles in urban settings and segregate them from other (more squishy) users. If you can’t AI solve for edge cases, build infrastructure to avoid them. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/9/18300797/barcelona-spain-superblocks-urban-plan https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/9/18300797...
      - ghaff 5y ago
        Lots of things become easier when your answer is just redesign cities.
        MomoXenosaga 5y ago
        American cities are build around cars- old places like Boston and NYC excluded. And there are a lot less pedestrians and cyclists to worry about.
        bobthepanda 5y ago
        Assume spherical cows and whatnot.
        OldHand2018 5y ago
        And that is complicated by the fact that, all else being equal, people are generally willing to pay a lot more money for a house in pedestrian-friendly areas. I have friends in Houston, TX and it’s true even there. If you had a free hand and could design a city with no-pedestrian auto sewer zones and no-FSD-vehicle pedestrian-friendly zones, you are basically going to create the stereotype that FSD is for poor people.
        ghaff 5y ago
        I'm not sure that is true in general. I live an hour outside a city and wouldn't trade a (certainly smaller) place in the city for the same amount of money.

Tesla is claiming it is literally around the corner and lets people pay 10kUSD for the privilege. I think this is the difficult part as non-technical people might take the claims at face value.

maxerickson 5y ago

Yeah, Tesla are acting like clowns. I was just wondering if the statement really meant anything as formulated, because it is qualified with 'at present'. If some other company succeeds next week, it wasn't wrong, because the statement is about right now. And so on for any time in the future.

jacquesm 5y ago
If it happens next week I'll be happy to retract it. If it happens in the next decade I'll be amazed. If it happens in the next century I'd still call it a very impressive accomplishment (only I won't be around to do so).
- ghaff 5y ago
  My prediction is we get to L4 (bounded limited access roads and weather conditions) soon-ish which is a huge win for both convenience and safety. Getting over the "uncanny valley" is a challenge but seems doable. And pretty much punt on dense urban driving as a commercial research project.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Imho, dense urban driving should be solved similar to limited access roads and parking lots with a a combination of pedestrian super blocks (such that Barcelona has). Deprioritize vehicles in urban settings and segregate them from other (more squishy) users. If you can’t AI solve for edge cases, build infrastructure to avoid them. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/9/18300797/barcelona-spain-superblocks-urban-plan https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/9/18300797...
    - ghaff 5y ago
      Lots of things become easier when your answer is just redesign cities.
      - MomoXenosaga 5y ago
        American cities are build around cars- old places like Boston and NYC excluded. And there are a lot less pedestrians and cyclists to worry about.
      - bobthepanda 5y ago
        Assume spherical cows and whatnot.
      - OldHand2018 5y ago
        And that is complicated by the fact that, all else being equal, people are generally willing to pay a lot more money for a house in pedestrian-friendly areas. I have friends in Houston, TX and it’s true even there. If you had a free hand and could design a city with no-pedestrian auto sewer zones and no-FSD-vehicle pedestrian-friendly zones, you are basically going to create the stereotype that FSD is for poor people.
        ghaff 5y ago
        I'm not sure that is true in general. I live an hour outside a city and wouldn't trade a (certainly smaller) place in the city for the same amount of money.