4 ms·

I think in a recent CES talk Mobileye CEO mentioned that Googles models for speech recognition hit a wall after a certain level of expontial improvement. It is

I think in a recent CES talk Mobileye CEO mentioned that Googles models for speech recognition hit a wall after a certain level of expontial improvement. It is not clear that the required robustness and accuracy can be solved with Deep Learning and cameras alone (Not this year or next anyways). I cannot find the exact quote but the talk in itself is very interesting. [1] He is very bullish on vision but says Tesla is making a huge gamble by betting the house on Deep Learning alone. They seem to be far ahead of Tesla in terms of developing a safe and viable FSD solution with the necessary redundancy. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4BXxPvHi60 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4BXxPvHi60

ghaff 5y ago
There's a comment in the last chapter of Russell and Norvig's AI textbook to effect of "We've made steady progress, right up to the top of the tree." There is certainly a school of thought that we'll need to tap into interdisciplinary fields like cognitive science to continue making real advances. It certainly feels as a consumer that things like voice assistants, ML transcription, computer vision systems are not that different than they were a few years ago.
- halotrope 5y ago
  Yes. The advances in Deep Learning are very impressive and are already proving useful. Still there seem to be no real breakthroughs in actual intelligence, reasoning or something that resembles consciousness.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    A lot of money and smarts has gone into studying cognitive processes and neurophysiology over <shudder> the past five decades. (I first took an Intro to Brain Science course in 1976.) It's actually longer than that. Interesting bit of trivia is that the 1956 MIT IEEE conference that is usually dated as the origin of cognitive science as a field, though the term wasn't coined until later, was just a few months after McCarthy's Dartmouth workshop that's usually considered the origin of AI. I dipped into a recent MIT class on video last year. As far as I can tell, some pretty basic things--like how do children learn--are as imperfectly understood now as they were in the late 70s.
Lammy 5y ago
> It is not clear that the required robustness and accuracy can be solved with Deep Learning and cameras alone It sure is a good excuse for a bunch of rolling surveillance though.
bsaul 5y ago
mobileye previous CEO made a video a few years ago about the theoretical limits to level5, explaining exactly why the number of edge cases made a training approach like neural network impractical. I hope that everybody will one day give this guy some credits, after the storm he must have faced when elon musk dropped mobileeye stating they didn't move fast enough, and claiming level5 was just around the corner.
- halotrope 5y ago
  As far as I understand Mobileye dropped Tesla because of their reckless marketing. Also they are heavily using cameras but additional sensors for redundancy.
lupire 5y ago
> models for speech recognition hit a wall after a certain level of expontial improvement. This is the logistic curve.

ghaff 5y ago

There's a comment in the last chapter of Russell and Norvig's AI textbook to effect of "We've made steady progress, right up to the top of the tree." There is certainly a school of thought that we'll need to tap into interdisciplinary fields like cognitive science to continue making real advances. It certainly feels as a consumer that things like voice assistants, ML transcription, computer vision systems are not that different than they were a few years ago.

halotrope 5y ago
Yes. The advances in Deep Learning are very impressive and are already proving useful. Still there seem to be no real breakthroughs in actual intelligence, reasoning or something that resembles consciousness.
- ghaff 5y ago
  A lot of money and smarts has gone into studying cognitive processes and neurophysiology over <shudder> the past five decades. (I first took an Intro to Brain Science course in 1976.) It's actually longer than that. Interesting bit of trivia is that the 1956 MIT IEEE conference that is usually dated as the origin of cognitive science as a field, though the term wasn't coined until later, was just a few months after McCarthy's Dartmouth workshop that's usually considered the origin of AI. I dipped into a recent MIT class on video last year. As far as I can tell, some pretty basic things--like how do children learn--are as imperfectly understood now as they were in the late 70s.

Lammy 5y ago

> It is not clear that the required robustness and accuracy can be solved with Deep Learning and cameras alone It sure is a good excuse for a bunch of rolling surveillance though.

bsaul 5y ago

mobileye previous CEO made a video a few years ago about the theoretical limits to level5, explaining exactly why the number of edge cases made a training approach like neural network impractical. I hope that everybody will one day give this guy some credits, after the storm he must have faced when elon musk dropped mobileeye stating they didn't move fast enough, and claiming level5 was just around the corner.

halotrope 5y ago
As far as I understand Mobileye dropped Tesla because of their reckless marketing. Also they are heavily using cameras but additional sensors for redundancy.

lupire 5y ago

> models for speech recognition hit a wall after a certain level of expontial improvement. This is the logistic curve.