4 ms·

The dynamics of odds movements are interesting in their own right imo. Some sports, with many days between matches (nfl, college football) lines can move drasti

The dynamics of odds movements are interesting in their own right imo. Some sports, with many days between matches (nfl, college football) lines can move drastically between when odds are published to match start. Others sports that play daily or by-daily often don’t see the swings. And then what facotors influence the line movement? People with predictive models that see great value in opening lines can move the line a lot. Things like injuries, starting lineup, breaking news before the match can certainly move the line. Casual bettors and fans betting on their team (the public) move the line but usually day of the match. The key insight is the books are trying to balance winners/losers to maximize their profit, that’s why the line moves. It’s also why historically spread betting is nearly 50% odds.

joosters 5y ago
The key insight is the books are trying to balance winners/losers to maximize their profit, that’s why the line moves. In two-way markets (e.g. a tennis match) maybe. With more outcomes, it's a rare market that ends up with the bookmakers locking in a profit regardless of the outcome. For horse racing, the favourite in the race is most often a loser in the book for the betting firm. Even for football (soccer) betting, i.e. team A/draw/team B, generally a bookie is very happy for a draw, because people just can't get very enthusiastic about betting on a tied result. Raising the odds on offer for a draw won't attract many extra regular punters, it only risks luring professionals who are more sensitive to the odds - and they aren't the customers you really want!
- ProjectArcturis 5y ago
  In horse racing, at least in the US, betting is done via a pari-mutuel system where the house pools all the money, takes a 20% cut, and then pays the remainder split between winning tickets proportional to the bet size.
kqr 5y ago
> Things like injuries, starting lineup, breaking news before the match can certainly move the line. But! At least until recently, people overreact to events like these. If you see the line moving strongly at once, it's more often an overreaction than an appropriate adjustment.

joosters 5y ago

The key insight is the books are trying to balance winners/losers to maximize their profit, that’s why the line moves. In two-way markets (e.g. a tennis match) maybe. With more outcomes, it's a rare market that ends up with the bookmakers locking in a profit regardless of the outcome. For horse racing, the favourite in the race is most often a loser in the book for the betting firm. Even for football (soccer) betting, i.e. team A/draw/team B, generally a bookie is very happy for a draw, because people just can't get very enthusiastic about betting on a tied result. Raising the odds on offer for a draw won't attract many extra regular punters, it only risks luring professionals who are more sensitive to the odds - and they aren't the customers you really want!

ProjectArcturis 5y ago
In horse racing, at least in the US, betting is done via a pari-mutuel system where the house pools all the money, takes a 20% cut, and then pays the remainder split between winning tickets proportional to the bet size.

kqr 5y ago

> Things like injuries, starting lineup, breaking news before the match can certainly move the line. But! At least until recently, people overreact to events like these. If you see the line moving strongly at once, it's more often an overreaction than an appropriate adjustment.