4 ms·

The wave isn't primarily due to loosening of restrictions or slack in behaviour. It's due to, for a lack of a better term, environmental factors. Look at the c

by mulvya 5y ago

The wave isn't primarily due to loosening of restrictions or slack in behaviour. It's due to, for a lack of a better term, environmental factors. Look at the countries in the vicinity of India; they all show similar rise at around the same time. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/pakistan/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/pakistan/#... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bangladesh/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bangladesh... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sri-lanka/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sri-lanka/... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/maldives/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/maldives/#... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/#grap... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/kazakhstan/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/kazakhstan... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/azerbaijan/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/azerbaijan... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uzbekistan/#graph-cases-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uzbekistan... ... COVID is seasonal: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.28.21252625v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.28.21252625v... Mumbai had the peak of its 'first wave' on October 7th. See mobility trends for vehicular and pedestrian traffic at https://covid19.apple.com/mobility https://covid19.apple.com/mobility. You'll see both monotonically increasing as the peak approaches and then recedes. If this were a simple morality tale of the level of social contact, this wouldn't be the case. See this paper for a more thorough look at the epidemiological mysteries of an infectious respiratory disease: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29 https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-42...

Angostura 5y ago
Well, if you look at a comparison graph of the countries directly adjoining India, the differences are pretty stark. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-04-29&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=BGD~IND~PAK~LKA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- mulvya 5y ago
  That's the magnitude of new detected infections. Pakistan has conducted 1/4th tests per-capita compared to India. 1/6th for Bangladesh. So I don't think there's much to see there. I'm comparing the inflection points and curves on the graphs.
  - Angostura 5y ago
    Tge inflection points for the latest outbreaks lag India and are quite probably due to cross-border leakage.
    - mulvya 5y ago
      Cross-border leakage with Bangladesh? Possibly. With Pakistan? Hardly. All of these countries require a recent negative test prior to arrival. The Central Asian countries show inflection at pretty much the same time, barring Uzbekistan which is a week late. However, India has a lot more relative traffic going on with Sri Lanka and they and Maldives, both South of India, inflected a whole month later.

by mulvya 5y ago

Angostura 5y ago

Well, if you look at a comparison graph of the countries directly adjoining India, the differences are pretty stark. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-04-29&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=BGD~IND~PAK~LKA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

mulvya 5y ago
That's the magnitude of new detected infections. Pakistan has conducted 1/4th tests per-capita compared to India. 1/6th for Bangladesh. So I don't think there's much to see there. I'm comparing the inflection points and curves on the graphs.
- Angostura 5y ago
  Tge inflection points for the latest outbreaks lag India and are quite probably due to cross-border leakage.
  - mulvya 5y ago
    Cross-border leakage with Bangladesh? Possibly. With Pakistan? Hardly. All of these countries require a recent negative test prior to arrival. The Central Asian countries show inflection at pretty much the same time, barring Uzbekistan which is a week late. However, India has a lot more relative traffic going on with Sri Lanka and they and Maldives, both South of India, inflected a whole month later.