5 ms·
One explanation I heard from a doctor recently is this: the younger population is infected/affected more this time because they have been infected and has been
by vinay_ys 5y ago
One explanation I heard from a doctor recently is this:
the younger population is infected/affected more this time because they have been infected and has been asymptomatic or mild all these months and with that the virus has mutated more amongst younger people. So the second wave is affecting the younger population much more intensely this time than before.
I don't know how scientific this explanation is.
My own gut thinking is that lockdown nowhere nearly as effective this time as last year. Even simple social mechanics that were in effect last year – like telcos changing their ring/busy tone to covid PSA message isn't there. People are not being reminded to take social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks precautions seriously.
And people are not doing it as seriously as they did last time. This has been the reality for the months of March and April where it seem to have spread silently. The weather change between Feb-April (very windy, cold to dry heat conditions) could also be a factor. And now, it is too serious and now people may change their behavior but it is too late.
- Aachen 5y agoIf that were true, we'd be seeing the mutation in sequencings. We all know India is doing pretty badly on that front, but it's also a huge huge population. It's rampant enough that it seems to me they'd have found at least some samples of what you're saying. As it is, B1.617 seems to be the most common there (though it seems hard to find absolute numbers a la [1]), not your friend's speculative mystery strain. Whether they are a doctor..; since what I heard from other doctors near the beginning of the pandemic, it seems they're no better equipped to deal with this than the rest of us and will speculate unscientifically just as much, except people parrot it more. [1] Table with sequencing results for the Netherlands. If someone knows where to find this for other counties, I'd be very interested! https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/varianten https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/varianten Bonus link: latest WHO update contains some info about variants (unfortunately not much, e.g. just saying a country has had a case of <insert variant> without any info on its prevalence there): https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---27-april-2021 https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiologic...
- ummonk 5y agoGP's friend is clearly referring to the B.1.617 variant, not some mystery strain.
- contravariant 5y agoIf you want more detailed info you should probably check out https://nextstrain.org/ https://nextstrain.org/.
- Aachen 5y agoThe latest report about SARS-CoV-2 is from August 2020, or am I missing something?