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https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/we-are-all-responsible-for-indias-devastating-second-wave-7296327/ https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/we-are-al

by qart 5y ago

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/we-are-all-responsible-for-indias-devastating-second-wave-7296327/ https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/we-are-all-respons... The author is a surgeon. He says things that many of us have been saying all along. Hopefully, his professional background will help wake some people up.

egghese 5y ago
Opinion columns are not scientific sources. To the article's credit recklessness from people are is the reason for the spike. But doesn't absolves a leadership that claimed to have concurred Covid-19 and have no clue about disaster management. Indians deserved better.
- qart 5y ago
  There have been more than enough scientific sources published for the effectiveness of masks. I hope you still don't doubt that part. I will not cite them. People have been crowding and not wearing masks across the country. Do you want a scientific source for that? There may never be one. The Indians who step out of their homes are aware of this already. No government or healthcare system can keep up with people flouting the scientific recommendations on such a scale.
  - egghese 5y ago
    I was not disagreeing with the articles claim people flouting rules caused a spike. But the people or the country isn't by itself responsible. Rather a callous government that was indifferent to this pandemic is. It had an year to prepare. It did nothing more than PR works - If the health infrastructure could not take it, what was the reason for this narrative ? https://www.thequint.com/news/india/in-january-pm-modi-had-expressed-indias-victory-over-covid-19 https://www.thequint.com/news/india/in-january-pm-modi-had-e... - Did they not know about vaccine demand ? https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2021-01-20-india-pharmacy-of-the-world-starts-covid-vaccine-exports/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2021-01-20-india-phar... - Why did they take away the states ability to prepare ? https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/apr/09/as-per-new-circular-states-depend-on-centre-to-procure-covid-19-medical-equipment-2128010.html https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/apr/09/as-per-n...
    - qart 5y ago
      > It did nothing more than PR works What's with the hyperbole? To disprove your point, I just have to point to one thing that the government did that was not PR? - What narrative, specifically? - At the time, I too was in support of supplying vaccines to countries who were in desperate need of it. I still don't mind waiting a few months if the vaccines that should have come to me go to a healthcare worker in some other country instead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26346021 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26346021 - There is no reason to take anything Shiv Sena says at face value. This is the single worst party in India. If law and order had worked in India, these people would have been declared terrorists long before most of us were born. They continue to mistreat doctors (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vUUQEpJEG4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vUUQEpJEG4) and threaten hospitals (https://twitter.com/amitsurg/status/1299352826636722176 https://twitter.com/amitsurg/status/1299352826636722176) across the state. Also, while all other states had the pandemic somewhat under control at one time or another, MH consistently stayed at #1 or #2 among the worst affected states.
      - indian1947 5y ago
        Shiv Sena is for sure known for their thuggery and being a party of regionalistic goons. They're hardly very different from their erstwhile allies the BJP though.
        qart 5y ago
        Any thoughts on their current allies? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXtH0NQFqZI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXtH0NQFqZI
- Xplune13 5y ago
  The response from the government for this wave is pretty bad and they took way too much time to act for sure. But, what you are saying is polar opposite from the article that OP posted. The reason isn't one or the another, it is the combination of both. Yes, Indians deserved better but the people's recklessness is so out of bounds in large cities (speaking from my own experience) that many knew this type of wave can happen and it did happen. The worst part is people ignored all the self-precautions and acted like everything is back to normal. So in the end, it is the combination of both, people's recklessness and delayed (unplanned as well) response from the government.
throwawaysea 5y ago
India was quite successful in handling the pandemic until this second wave, which rose from a low case count to new peaks within a month. Cases lag infection events, and it takes time for the data to be reported, for people and governments to react to it, for changes to be made, and so on. It's easy in hindsight to say some action must have been taken by some date, but while it's happening live, it's hard to tell a new and different pattern apart from "normal" fluctuation. For example, when I was looking at the case graphs a couple weeks ago (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-and-daily-new-confirmed-covid-cases?country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-and-daily-new...), there was a temporary dip in case counts between the initial portion of the second wave and subsequent faster rise. That dip is no longer visible, and likely got filled in by delayed data, but my point is that it's hard to figure out what's an under-reaction or over-reaction to a live and chaotic situation. For leaders without the luxury of hindsight, it's challenging because they need to carefully balance health impacts with social and economic impacts. > (from the Indian Express article) We need to accept that the politicians do not decide what we do in our everyday routine. The federal government of India, for its part, was very much cognizant of the surge. Their press releases noted the surge in a few states as early as February 20th (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699596 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699596), which was a very fast reaction. The federal government provided updated guidance to the affected states the very next day (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699735 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699735), but did not force any decision on individual states, in keeping with the cooperative federalism that governs the health ministry's decisions. Regular guidance updates and interventions continued thereon. Like your article suggests, my feeling is that this situation will end up being attributable to a mix of increased general mobility across society, combined with the unfortunate advent of more infectious variants, rather than any singular factor. Looking at the latest mobility graphs (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/changes-visitors-covid?country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/changes-visitors-covid?co...), we can increasing mobility preceding the surge and then a big drop in mobility around March 27th, when the daily number of cases was 3x the low point but half the prior peaks. We can wish for earlier change in behaviors now, but the timeline of how society reacted is not entirely unreasonable - it's simply the reality of seeing data and reacting to it with some natural time delay. As for the risk of new variants, per a breaking Reuters article (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-scientists-say-india-government-ignored-warnings-amid-coronavirus-2021-05-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-scienti...), some scientists identified that certain new variants were responsible for many cases and that they also seem to be able to escape antibodies: > A version of that draft, seen by Reuters, set out the forum’s findings: the new Indian variant had two significant mutations to the portion of the virus that attaches to human cells, and it had been traced in 15% to 20% of samples from Maharashtra, India's worst-affected state. > The draft statement said that the mutations, called E484Q and L452R, were of “high concern.” It said “there is data of E484Q mutant viruses escaping highly neutralising antibodies in cultures, and there is data that L452R mutation was responsible for both increased transmissibility and immune escape." The findings were shared with the Health Ministry on March 10th, and publicly released on March 24th. This article notes that it is unclear if this report was ever sent to Modi. Interestingly enough, this Reuters article mentions many possible missteps or contributing factors, but also quotes a scientist who is careful not to place singular blame on anyone, just like the Indian Express article you linked: > To be sure, some scientists say the surge was much larger than expected and the setback cannot be pinned on political leadership alone. "There is no point blaming the government," Saumitra Das, director of the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, which is part of INSACOG, told Reuters.

by qart 5y ago

egghese 5y ago

Opinion columns are not scientific sources. To the article's credit recklessness from people are is the reason for the spike. But doesn't absolves a leadership that claimed to have concurred Covid-19 and have no clue about disaster management. Indians deserved better.

qart 5y ago
There have been more than enough scientific sources published for the effectiveness of masks. I hope you still don't doubt that part. I will not cite them. People have been crowding and not wearing masks across the country. Do you want a scientific source for that? There may never be one. The Indians who step out of their homes are aware of this already. No government or healthcare system can keep up with people flouting the scientific recommendations on such a scale.
- egghese 5y ago
  I was not disagreeing with the articles claim people flouting rules caused a spike. But the people or the country isn't by itself responsible. Rather a callous government that was indifferent to this pandemic is. It had an year to prepare. It did nothing more than PR works - If the health infrastructure could not take it, what was the reason for this narrative ? https://www.thequint.com/news/india/in-january-pm-modi-had-expressed-indias-victory-over-covid-19 https://www.thequint.com/news/india/in-january-pm-modi-had-e... - Did they not know about vaccine demand ? https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2021-01-20-india-pharmacy-of-the-world-starts-covid-vaccine-exports/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2021-01-20-india-phar... - Why did they take away the states ability to prepare ? https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/apr/09/as-per-new-circular-states-depend-on-centre-to-procure-covid-19-medical-equipment-2128010.html https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/apr/09/as-per-n...
  - qart 5y ago
    > It did nothing more than PR works What's with the hyperbole? To disprove your point, I just have to point to one thing that the government did that was not PR? - What narrative, specifically? - At the time, I too was in support of supplying vaccines to countries who were in desperate need of it. I still don't mind waiting a few months if the vaccines that should have come to me go to a healthcare worker in some other country instead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26346021 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26346021 - There is no reason to take anything Shiv Sena says at face value. This is the single worst party in India. If law and order had worked in India, these people would have been declared terrorists long before most of us were born. They continue to mistreat doctors (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vUUQEpJEG4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vUUQEpJEG4) and threaten hospitals (https://twitter.com/amitsurg/status/1299352826636722176 https://twitter.com/amitsurg/status/1299352826636722176) across the state. Also, while all other states had the pandemic somewhat under control at one time or another, MH consistently stayed at #1 or #2 among the worst affected states.
    - indian1947 5y ago
      Shiv Sena is for sure known for their thuggery and being a party of regionalistic goons. They're hardly very different from their erstwhile allies the BJP though.
      - qart 5y ago
        Any thoughts on their current allies? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXtH0NQFqZI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXtH0NQFqZI
Xplune13 5y ago
The response from the government for this wave is pretty bad and they took way too much time to act for sure. But, what you are saying is polar opposite from the article that OP posted. The reason isn't one or the another, it is the combination of both. Yes, Indians deserved better but the people's recklessness is so out of bounds in large cities (speaking from my own experience) that many knew this type of wave can happen and it did happen. The worst part is people ignored all the self-precautions and acted like everything is back to normal. So in the end, it is the combination of both, people's recklessness and delayed (unplanned as well) response from the government.

throwawaysea 5y ago

India was quite successful in handling the pandemic until this second wave, which rose from a low case count to new peaks within a month. Cases lag infection events, and it takes time for the data to be reported, for people and governments to react to it, for changes to be made, and so on. It's easy in hindsight to say some action must have been taken by some date, but while it's happening live, it's hard to tell a new and different pattern apart from "normal" fluctuation. For example, when I was looking at the case graphs a couple weeks ago (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-and-daily-new-confirmed-covid-cases?country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-and-daily-new...), there was a temporary dip in case counts between the initial portion of the second wave and subsequent faster rise. That dip is no longer visible, and likely got filled in by delayed data, but my point is that it's hard to figure out what's an under-reaction or over-reaction to a live and chaotic situation. For leaders without the luxury of hindsight, it's challenging because they need to carefully balance health impacts with social and economic impacts. > (from the Indian Express article) We need to accept that the politicians do not decide what we do in our everyday routine. The federal government of India, for its part, was very much cognizant of the surge. Their press releases noted the surge in a few states as early as February 20th (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699596 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699596), which was a very fast reaction. The federal government provided updated guidance to the affected states the very next day (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699735 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1699735), but did not force any decision on individual states, in keeping with the cooperative federalism that governs the health ministry's decisions. Regular guidance updates and interventions continued thereon. Like your article suggests, my feeling is that this situation will end up being attributable to a mix of increased general mobility across society, combined with the unfortunate advent of more infectious variants, rather than any singular factor. Looking at the latest mobility graphs (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/changes-visitors-covid?country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/changes-visitors-covid?co...), we can increasing mobility preceding the surge and then a big drop in mobility around March 27th, when the daily number of cases was 3x the low point but half the prior peaks. We can wish for earlier change in behaviors now, but the timeline of how society reacted is not entirely unreasonable - it's simply the reality of seeing data and reacting to it with some natural time delay. As for the risk of new variants, per a breaking Reuters article (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-scientists-say-india-government-ignored-warnings-amid-coronavirus-2021-05-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-scienti...), some scientists identified that certain new variants were responsible for many cases and that they also seem to be able to escape antibodies: > A version of that draft, seen by Reuters, set out the forum’s findings: the new Indian variant had two significant mutations to the portion of the virus that attaches to human cells, and it had been traced in 15% to 20% of samples from Maharashtra, India's worst-affected state. > The draft statement said that the mutations, called E484Q and L452R, were of “high concern.” It said “there is data of E484Q mutant viruses escaping highly neutralising antibodies in cultures, and there is data that L452R mutation was responsible for both increased transmissibility and immune escape." The findings were shared with the Health Ministry on March 10th, and publicly released on March 24th. This article notes that it is unclear if this report was ever sent to Modi. Interestingly enough, this Reuters article mentions many possible missteps or contributing factors, but also quotes a scientist who is careful not to place singular blame on anyone, just like the Indian Express article you linked: > To be sure, some scientists say the surge was much larger than expected and the setback cannot be pinned on political leadership alone. "There is no point blaming the government," Saumitra Das, director of the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, which is part of INSACOG, told Reuters.