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That’s a popular thought in the US, in particular among political activists, but from what I understand, economists dismiss Reagan’s unprecedented peacetime def

That’s a popular thought in the US, in particular among political activists, but from what I understand, economists dismiss Reagan’s unprecedented peacetime deficit spending on the military, and rather point to internal inefficiencies in the Soviet economy, and critically the global price of oil. Like Russia today, the Soviet Union’s economy was centered on exports of raw materials, in particular oil and gas. Wells were needing to be recapitalized, but with low prices the money wasn’t available to revitalize the economic engine of the country. Luckily for the Soviet Union, the oil crises of the 1970s jacked up the price of oil, thus allowing them to stave off collapse until prices fell back to their historical average. In other words, if it wasn’t for OPEC, the Soviet Union would have collapsed under Nixon or Carter. https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/20070419_Gaidar.pdf https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/20070419_Gaid... https://www.rbth.com/history/331825-saudi-arabia-oil-crisis-ussr-collapse https://www.rbth.com/history/331825-saudi-arabia-oil-crisis-... https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/29/formation-and-evolution-of-soviet-union-s-oil-and-gas-dependence-pub-68443 https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/29/formation-and-evolu...

echelon 6y ago
What's your take on the future of China, Taiwan, Asia, and the US?
- MangoCoffee 6y ago
  China - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY_zsc0wf1Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY_zsc0wf1Y I am not an expert on geopolitics and when it come to CCP's data. I'll always assumed false/fake then verify but one thing is real is the One Child Policy. Xi want dual circulation economy but I highly doubt that's going to happen with its population decline. China going to deal with labors, support older population, long term impact on economy...etc. if Peter is correct, China is becoming another old folks home like Japan. China's birth rate is already approaching Japan's level.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Africa and India have young populations, they’ll be the powerhouses of the second half of this century.
eloff 6y ago
So if I remember correctly Soviet military spending reached 10% of their GDP which was unsustainable. I wonder if that was due to GDP falling with weak oil prices, or just rising military budget with a stagnant economy.
- jonathankoren 6y ago
  Probably all of the above. Fun fact: No one knows how percentage of GDP the Soviets were spending on their military, but 10% is the low estimate. (See second figure.) The fifth figure should put to rest the idea that the Soviets tried to meet an increase in US military spending in the 80s. They didn’t. In fact, the president exact opposite is true. The US increased spending due to an increase by the Soviets in the mid 1970s. Soviet spending didn’t really increase at all in the 1980s. https://nintil.com/the-soviet-union-military-spending/ https://nintil.com/the-soviet-union-military-spending/

echelon 6y ago

What's your take on the future of China, Taiwan, Asia, and the US?

MangoCoffee 6y ago
China - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY_zsc0wf1Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY_zsc0wf1Y I am not an expert on geopolitics and when it come to CCP's data. I'll always assumed false/fake then verify but one thing is real is the One Child Policy. Xi want dual circulation economy but I highly doubt that's going to happen with its population decline. China going to deal with labors, support older population, long term impact on economy...etc. if Peter is correct, China is becoming another old folks home like Japan. China's birth rate is already approaching Japan's level.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Africa and India have young populations, they’ll be the powerhouses of the second half of this century.

eloff 6y ago

So if I remember correctly Soviet military spending reached 10% of their GDP which was unsustainable. I wonder if that was due to GDP falling with weak oil prices, or just rising military budget with a stagnant economy.

jonathankoren 6y ago
Probably all of the above. Fun fact: No one knows how percentage of GDP the Soviets were spending on their military, but 10% is the low estimate. (See second figure.) The fifth figure should put to rest the idea that the Soviets tried to meet an increase in US military spending in the 80s. They didn’t. In fact, the president exact opposite is true. The US increased spending due to an increase by the Soviets in the mid 1970s. Soviet spending didn’t really increase at all in the 1980s. https://nintil.com/the-soviet-union-military-spending/ https://nintil.com/the-soviet-union-military-spending/