6 ms·

Crime and housing cost are not new. Most people fleeing California do that over tax uncertainty and general business unfriendliness. Stuff like retroactive inc

Crime and housing cost are not new. Most people fleeing California do that over tax uncertainty and general business unfriendliness. Stuff like retroactive income tax increase or exit tax.

justinzollars 5y ago
I disagree. Taxes haven't materially changed in California in a decade. People are leaving because they aren't happy here. Look around, you don't see a lot of smiling faces.
- 762236 5y ago
  Trump and the Republicans raised my California state taxes a lot.
- compiler-guy 5y ago
  The $10,000-deduction limit on State and Local Taxes (SALT) materially changed the calculation for highly compensated tech workers. It effectively raised federal taxes for people living in high-tax states, of which California is way up there.
  - justinzollars 5y ago
    That's a good point, but that could change. Its being negotiated right now.
- cigaser 5y ago
  People could leave SF and stay somewhere on coast. California has beautiful and diverse countryside. I wrote "uncertainty" because things may change very soon.
baby 5y ago
First time I hear that and it sounds more like wishful thinking. Most people I know who either are still here or left would be willing to pay more in taxes to get universal healthcare, less homeless, etc.
compiler-guy 5y ago
San Francisco's crime rate is trending very strangely [1]. Property crime is up dramatically, but violent crime is down. Shelter-in-place likely has a lot to do with that--people just aren't out as much as they were before, so burglaries are easier, and assault is harder. But the overall trend is very disturbing. Crime may be old news, but the rate is higher than it has been in a while, and going up. Housing is down recently from all-time highs, but still very high in absolute terms. So none of this is new, but the Covid shock to the system has created the opportunity for people to leave in the way that there wasn't before. San Francisco will be OK, wave after wave of rise and decline has been its way since the gold rush. [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/San-Francisco-s-crime-rates-shifted-16071268.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/San-Francisco-s-cr...

Crime and housing cost are not new. Most people fleeing California do that over tax uncertainty and general business unfriendliness. Stuff like retroactive income tax increase or exit tax.

justinzollars 5y ago

I disagree. Taxes haven't materially changed in California in a decade. People are leaving because they aren't happy here. Look around, you don't see a lot of smiling faces.

762236 5y ago
Trump and the Republicans raised my California state taxes a lot.
compiler-guy 5y ago
The $10,000-deduction limit on State and Local Taxes (SALT) materially changed the calculation for highly compensated tech workers. It effectively raised federal taxes for people living in high-tax states, of which California is way up there.
- justinzollars 5y ago
  That's a good point, but that could change. Its being negotiated right now.
cigaser 5y ago
People could leave SF and stay somewhere on coast. California has beautiful and diverse countryside. I wrote "uncertainty" because things may change very soon.

baby 5y ago

First time I hear that and it sounds more like wishful thinking. Most people I know who either are still here or left would be willing to pay more in taxes to get universal healthcare, less homeless, etc.

compiler-guy 5y ago

San Francisco's crime rate is trending very strangely [1]. Property crime is up dramatically, but violent crime is down. Shelter-in-place likely has a lot to do with that--people just aren't out as much as they were before, so burglaries are easier, and assault is harder. But the overall trend is very disturbing. Crime may be old news, but the rate is higher than it has been in a while, and going up. Housing is down recently from all-time highs, but still very high in absolute terms. So none of this is new, but the Covid shock to the system has created the opportunity for people to leave in the way that there wasn't before. San Francisco will be OK, wave after wave of rise and decline has been its way since the gold rush. [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/San-Francisco-s-crime-rates-shifted-16071268.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/San-Francisco-s-cr...