8 ms·

That stance being: we own Taiwan and we will depose their government by force if necessary, eventually. China senses this moment as one of profound weakness for

That stance being: we own Taiwan and we will depose their government by force if necessary, eventually. China senses this moment as one of profound weakness for the West. What makes you think they aren't preparing to strike while the iron is hot? Top brass in the U.S. military is saying an invasion is likely within the decade: https://www.newsweek.com/top-commander-fears-taiwan-could-invaded-within-6-years-after-china-sends-us-warning-1574964 https://www.newsweek.com/top-commander-fears-taiwan-could-in... Edit: I fail to see how China invading Taiwan could be considered a "military response", rather than a blatantly illegal land grab according to international law. Edit 2: The international law in question is the one forbidding annexation: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/07/israelopt-10-things-you-need-to-know-about-annexation/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/07/israelopt-10-...

xtian 6y ago
> we own Taiwan and we will depose their government by force if necessary, eventually. Until very recently this was Taiwan's stance on China. What exactly would China gain from invading Taiwan? My understanding is that their main goal is preventing the expansion of US military presence and bases in the region, which Taiwan's pro-independence party supports. Response to your edit: China invading Taiwan would not be an annexation according to international law. A small minority of nations recognize Taiwan's sovereignty, and historically it is not a sovereign nation. Taiwan represents the losing side of a Chinese civil war that recently decided it wants to be a sovereign nation as its hopes of retaking the mainland have evaporated.
- chitowneats 6y ago
  A propaganda coup, first of all. They have been promising their increasingly nationalistic populace this prize for nearly a century. Second: They eliminate a very important forward operating base for any future containment of China by Five Eyes & Co. Third: It's 23 million people who have built an advanced economy. Being able to siphon that wealth will be a massive boon for the CCP and other parts of China. The rationale for invasion is clear. Particularly if they have calculated they can't or won't be stopped. I know more than a few mainlanders and they all strongly believe that Taiwan and China will be "reunified" within their lifetime. Edit: Does anyone here care that none of the Taiwanese want to be part of China? Yes, they are the "losing side" of a civil war from almost a century ago. That's completely irrelevant given how long they have had sovereignty at this point. That they are not more widely recognized in the international community is a tragedy. The U.S. is correct to continue to support their independence.
  - xtian 6y ago
    > Third: It's 23 million people who have built an advanced economy. Being able to siphon that wealth will be a massive boon for the CCP and other parts of China. Ah yes, the filthy lucre of siphoning an economy with 4% of their own GDP.
    - chitowneats 6y ago
      4% is 4%. They are paying the expenditures to maintain their military. Why would they not be looking for a return on their investment? It's strange we're even arguing about this given that their official position is that they will invade in due time if Taiwan does not unconditionally surrender. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-taiwan-invasion-military-exercise/2020/10/12/291f5d86-0c58-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-taiw... "In its annual work report this year, the Chinese government removed the word "peaceful" from long-standing references to "reunification" with Taiwan."
      - xtian 6y ago
        Their official position is that they will invade if any of a few specific things occur. And China's military spending is less than 4% of their GDP last I checked. That seems pretty good to me given all the geopolitical aggression they're receiving from the country that makes up 38% of global military spending.
        chitowneats 6y ago
        The U.S. guaranteeing the independence of a free democracy is not "geopolitical aggression". Claiming sovereignty over land you have not controlled for an entire human lifetime quite certainly is. I'll end my participation in this discussion with a quote from the Taiwanese: "We fill fight a war if we need to fight a war, and if we need to defend ourselves to the very last day, then we will defend ourselves to the very last day" https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-warns-fight-to-end-conflict-with-china-2021-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-warns-fight-to-end-co...
- 8note 6y ago
  Access to the ocean. Right now, America owns China's coast, with the aim of making sure China has to get America's permission to get to ocean shipping routes. A PRC Taiwan gives china a free access point to the Pacific.
Leary 6y ago
Which international law would China be violating by invading Taiwan?
- randomopining 6y ago
  Taiwan fits all criteria under international law for a country. Plus CCP would kill hundreds of thousands or millions during a forceful invasion of Taiwan. Laws always have loopholes. It's clear that the CCP would be doing something evil by attacking a peaceful island nation. They want control.
  - f6v 6y ago
    > Plus CCP would kill hundreds of thousands or millions during a forceful invasion of Taiwan. > They want control. Does not add up. Who're they going to control if they kill millions? I mean, why do they even have to start a military offensive when they can eventually outcompete Taiwan? Just think how many top-rated universities China has.
    - theandrewbailey 6y ago
      > Does not add up. Who're they going to control if they kill millions? Their citizens on the mainland. The CCP believes that if they don't look good, their days are numbered and revolution will be inevitable.
      - xtian 6y ago
        A survey conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School found that satisfaction with the central government in China rose from 86.1% in 2003 to 93.1% in 2016: https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/understanding-ccp-resilience-surveying-chinese-public-opinion-through-time https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/understanding-ccp-resil... Is the US government's abysmal approval rating by comparison a sign of our free thinking and freedom, or do you think we'll have a revolution here soon?
        6y ago
dheera 6y ago
In practice, international law only applies to small countries with small militaries.
- chitowneats 6y ago
  Correct
- rendang 6y ago
  Sometimes, not even them.
FpUser 6y ago
>"The international law" The law is only as good as there is an entity capable and willing to impartially enforce it. Meanwhile as it stands now any reasonably capable country can show big fat middle finger to that concept which makes it but a mockery.
- f6v 6y ago
  Nuclear weapons + huge economy = I do whatever I want.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
f6v 6y ago
> Top brass in the U.S. military is saying an invasion is likely within the decade So you're saying if China/Russia/Iran did not have any plans whatsoever, the US generals would just say "Alrighty, you can now defund us!". Those guys will cry wolf any day to get those sweet $billions.

xtian 6y ago

> we own Taiwan and we will depose their government by force if necessary, eventually. Until very recently this was Taiwan's stance on China. What exactly would China gain from invading Taiwan? My understanding is that their main goal is preventing the expansion of US military presence and bases in the region, which Taiwan's pro-independence party supports. Response to your edit: China invading Taiwan would not be an annexation according to international law. A small minority of nations recognize Taiwan's sovereignty, and historically it is not a sovereign nation. Taiwan represents the losing side of a Chinese civil war that recently decided it wants to be a sovereign nation as its hopes of retaking the mainland have evaporated.

chitowneats 6y ago
A propaganda coup, first of all. They have been promising their increasingly nationalistic populace this prize for nearly a century. Second: They eliminate a very important forward operating base for any future containment of China by Five Eyes & Co. Third: It's 23 million people who have built an advanced economy. Being able to siphon that wealth will be a massive boon for the CCP and other parts of China. The rationale for invasion is clear. Particularly if they have calculated they can't or won't be stopped. I know more than a few mainlanders and they all strongly believe that Taiwan and China will be "reunified" within their lifetime. Edit: Does anyone here care that none of the Taiwanese want to be part of China? Yes, they are the "losing side" of a civil war from almost a century ago. That's completely irrelevant given how long they have had sovereignty at this point. That they are not more widely recognized in the international community is a tragedy. The U.S. is correct to continue to support their independence.
- xtian 6y ago
  > Third: It's 23 million people who have built an advanced economy. Being able to siphon that wealth will be a massive boon for the CCP and other parts of China. Ah yes, the filthy lucre of siphoning an economy with 4% of their own GDP.
  - chitowneats 6y ago
    4% is 4%. They are paying the expenditures to maintain their military. Why would they not be looking for a return on their investment? It's strange we're even arguing about this given that their official position is that they will invade in due time if Taiwan does not unconditionally surrender. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-taiwan-invasion-military-exercise/2020/10/12/291f5d86-0c58-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-taiw... "In its annual work report this year, the Chinese government removed the word "peaceful" from long-standing references to "reunification" with Taiwan."
    - xtian 6y ago
      Their official position is that they will invade if any of a few specific things occur. And China's military spending is less than 4% of their GDP last I checked. That seems pretty good to me given all the geopolitical aggression they're receiving from the country that makes up 38% of global military spending.
      - chitowneats 6y ago
        The U.S. guaranteeing the independence of a free democracy is not "geopolitical aggression". Claiming sovereignty over land you have not controlled for an entire human lifetime quite certainly is. I'll end my participation in this discussion with a quote from the Taiwanese: "We fill fight a war if we need to fight a war, and if we need to defend ourselves to the very last day, then we will defend ourselves to the very last day" https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-warns-fight-to-end-conflict-with-china-2021-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-warns-fight-to-end-co...
8note 6y ago
Access to the ocean. Right now, America owns China's coast, with the aim of making sure China has to get America's permission to get to ocean shipping routes. A PRC Taiwan gives china a free access point to the Pacific.

Leary 6y ago

Which international law would China be violating by invading Taiwan?

randomopining 6y ago
Taiwan fits all criteria under international law for a country. Plus CCP would kill hundreds of thousands or millions during a forceful invasion of Taiwan. Laws always have loopholes. It's clear that the CCP would be doing something evil by attacking a peaceful island nation. They want control.
- f6v 6y ago
  > Plus CCP would kill hundreds of thousands or millions during a forceful invasion of Taiwan. > They want control. Does not add up. Who're they going to control if they kill millions? I mean, why do they even have to start a military offensive when they can eventually outcompete Taiwan? Just think how many top-rated universities China has.
  - theandrewbailey 6y ago
    > Does not add up. Who're they going to control if they kill millions? Their citizens on the mainland. The CCP believes that if they don't look good, their days are numbered and revolution will be inevitable.
    - xtian 6y ago
      A survey conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School found that satisfaction with the central government in China rose from 86.1% in 2003 to 93.1% in 2016: https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/understanding-ccp-resilience-surveying-chinese-public-opinion-through-time https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/understanding-ccp-resil... Is the US government's abysmal approval rating by comparison a sign of our free thinking and freedom, or do you think we'll have a revolution here soon?
      - 6y ago

dheera 6y ago

In practice, international law only applies to small countries with small militaries.

chitowneats 6y ago
Correct
rendang 6y ago
Sometimes, not even them.

FpUser 6y ago

>"The international law" The law is only as good as there is an entity capable and willing to impartially enforce it. Meanwhile as it stands now any reasonably capable country can show big fat middle finger to that concept which makes it but a mockery.

f6v 6y ago
Nuclear weapons + huge economy = I do whatever I want.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

f6v 6y ago

> Top brass in the U.S. military is saying an invasion is likely within the decade So you're saying if China/Russia/Iran did not have any plans whatsoever, the US generals would just say "Alrighty, you can now defund us!". Those guys will cry wolf any day to get those sweet $billions.