3 ms·

I'd politely disagree. The massive fall and recovery around March 2020 was easy to predict, so I did and made a handsome amount of money. I mean, if a small ast

by akomtu 6y ago

I'd politely disagree. The massive fall and recovery around March 2020 was easy to predict, so I did and made a handsome amount of money. I mean, if a small asteroid fell on an important trade route or if another serious pandemic began, would you seriously suggest to just hold the stocks?

ericmay 6y ago
I did too, but I think that's besides the point.
egman_ekki 6y ago
Curious to learn more, if you don't mind sharing. I wrongly assumed things would get quite a bit worse than they were at the point when sp500 turned back up. How did you know that was the bottom? Fundamental analysis? Or were you buying continuously on the way down?
- ericmay 6y ago
  Well, I can't speak for the person you are replying to, but think about a company like this (in general) - has something changed such that the new price (usually a drop) makes sense? Take Amazon - down 15% or something. The virus is there yet, but is Amazon really worth 15% less? Won't people shop online? There's no way Amazon is going bankrupt, and there's no way that the U.S. would let companies like this fail over the virus, so is it really worth 15% less? You don't have to time the exact moment of the bottom, you just find it once you see double digit loses in extremely good and valuable companies who are pulled down with the market. Airlines? Yea probably wouldn't have been an ideal buy, though if you waited long enough you've rebounded on them. But it seemed pretty safe to buy the big tech companies, Berkshire, etc. when they were experiencing double-digit percentage market losses over a likely temporary phenomenon. Now, was it possible that things would have gotten much, much worse? Yea. So OP and myself could have been wrong, but instances like this are a bit of informed gambling, if you will.

3 ms·

I'd politely disagree. The massive fall and recovery around March 2020 was easy to predict, so I did and made a handsome amount of money. I mean, if a small ast

by akomtu 6y ago

ericmay 6y ago
I did too, but I think that's besides the point.
egman_ekki 6y ago
Curious to learn more, if you don't mind sharing. I wrongly assumed things would get quite a bit worse than they were at the point when sp500 turned back up. How did you know that was the bottom? Fundamental analysis? Or were you buying continuously on the way down?
- ericmay 6y ago
  Well, I can't speak for the person you are replying to, but think about a company like this (in general) - has something changed such that the new price (usually a drop) makes sense? Take Amazon - down 15% or something. The virus is there yet, but is Amazon really worth 15% less? Won't people shop online? There's no way Amazon is going bankrupt, and there's no way that the U.S. would let companies like this fail over the virus, so is it really worth 15% less? You don't have to time the exact moment of the bottom, you just find it once you see double digit loses in extremely good and valuable companies who are pulled down with the market. Airlines? Yea probably wouldn't have been an ideal buy, though if you waited long enough you've rebounded on them. But it seemed pretty safe to buy the big tech companies, Berkshire, etc. when they were experiencing double-digit percentage market losses over a likely temporary phenomenon. Now, was it possible that things would have gotten much, much worse? Yea. So OP and myself could have been wrong, but instances like this are a bit of informed gambling, if you will.