This rational behavior in the face of stupid incentives is the same reason the rational set of management-sorts may not bother to make sure their facts & figure

This rational behavior in the face of stupid incentives is the same reason the rational set of management-sorts may not bother to make sure their facts & figures actually demonstrate what they claim they do, even when they know they probably don't. The extra effort wouldn't help them get the answer they're looking for, anyway, and might even harm their chances if they're honest about the level of uncertainty. The part that's stupid is everyone, even the ones who know better, pretending a bunch of bad statistics and such aren't bad, but if the suits in the room are nodding along you damn well better not point that out. People succeeding in the management track either actually are bad at understanding these things, or (plenty often) do understand but also know to STFU about it.