3 ms·
This is a good visualization, I think. Interesting that they include taxes here, though, as that can vary quite a bit by individual circumstance, and most long-
by dnadler 5y ago
This is a good visualization, I think. Interesting that they include taxes here, though, as that can vary quite a bit by individual circumstance, and most long-term retail investing is probably done in tax-advantaged accounts like 401ks. Also, it's important to note that this appears to be in real terms, and so the period in the 70s to 80s is somewhat extraordinary. -2% annual return vs ~10% inflation isn't great, but also far better than cash.
All that said, it does show that the longer you hold, the more likely you are to achieve an average positive return. Note that the only negative return (again in real terms) is the darkest red.
Again, just to drive the point home, the neutral color 3%-7% return is after inflation. If the long-run average inflation is 2%, then this is 5%-9% average annual return which almost exactly tracks the common assumptions surrounding long-term buy & hold.