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The S&P had one 22-year drawdown in its history, the Great Depression. Second place was 4 years. If people planned to contribute once in their life, the risk o
by caturopath 5y ago
The S&P had one 22-year drawdown in its history, the Great Depression. Second place was 4 years.
If people planned to contribute once in their life, the risk of buying the top before a long drawdown would be relevant.
Most people spend decades of their life buying investments. Even folks with bad luck seldom buy the absolute top -- positions acquired a couple months before are out of the drawdown that much sooner.
No backtest of typical investment patterns is going to see any 15-year net losses in the S&P's history.
- kgwgk 5y ago> Second place was 4 years. What about mid-2000 to late-2006? And that's in nominal terms, because it underperformed cash from mid-2000 to mid-2013 (and quite longer against bonds).
- caturopath 5y agoUgh, I looked at the wrong column in https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/5/20/saupload_dd.tab_.19may2020_thumb1.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/5/20/saupload_d... and didn't sanity check the results. Sorry for my sloppiness and misinformation.