5 ms·
> Is it going to suddenly pop? Unlikely, I disagree. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.co
by JohnJamesRambo 6y ago
> Is it going to suddenly pop? Unlikely,
I disagree.
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica...
Unless you mean will it pop tomorrow, then yes that is unlikely. But the chances it pops “soon” seem quite likely. And it will be very ugly. I don’t know if we have ever seen a spring coiled this tight from money printing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
- lg 6y agobut what is a 'pop'? maybe ordinary swings in both directions due to various minor panics and manias and profit-takings that average out to a decade of nominal gains but depressed real returns?
- nscalf 6y ago'Pop' can also take the form of increasing inflation, making people take bigger risks for returns, leading to a bigger pop that is not coming soon. People saying this market can't sustain need to think about the inverse: what needs to happen for this market cycle to last 5-10+ years? "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
- JohnJamesRambo 6y ago2003 and 2009 style drawbacks but much worse. The SP500 has had 12 years of straight bull market, it's like an earthquake fault line that hasn't slipped in a long long time.