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the problem is just that you don't know when it's a good or bad timing, that's why you shouldn't bother and just put your money in. If your money is long enough
by arez 5y ago
the problem is just that you don't know when it's a good or bad timing, that's why you shouldn't bother and just put your money in. If your money is long enough in the market it doesn't matter anymore that much as it averages out. It also sounds that you think 15yrs is a long time, but for ETF you should consider more like 20yrs and up
- boringg 5y agoI understand the theory behind it and the uncertainty of timing is an impossible problem to solve. My point is that holding S&P 500 generally gives you a positive return but if you buy during good years/months and end up having to sell in bad years/months you actually can have a negative return up to a about 15 years (if you really eff the timing up) or get marginal returns (1-2% per year). Even over 40 years - you probably wouldn't be supper happy with a 100% return - yes things go positive but your returns are much lower if you time the market poorly (obvious statement). For example buying in 98/99/00 your returns are much worse then buying before or after. Likewise selling in those years gave much higher returns. Stating the obvious - but worth thinking about. Sell when the market is rich, buy when its soft (like blackjack).