I feel reasonably confident that we will probably continue to see decent gains over the medium term of the next few decades, barring major wars. But what is alw

I feel reasonably confident that we will probably continue to see decent gains over the medium term of the next few decades, barring major wars. But what is always in the back of my mind is just how long can human civilization continue this incredible rate of exponential growth. If you assume that economic growth requires any amount of increase in energy consumption, then there are physical limits to how much growth can occur over the long term and we are rapidly approaching them[1]. Eventually growth will need to slow and it looks like this is already starting to happen [2]. Japan may be the endgame for most of us. Eventually there could be zero growth and then things become zero-sum which may encourage conflict. If we are able to colonize other parts of the solar system and export industry off the planet that will allow for several more decades and probably centuries (millenia?) of growth. Hopefully civilization will survive conflict long enough to make this transition. [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.05244 https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.05244 [2] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/15/young-people-stand-to-make-dismal-returns-on-their-investments https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/15/young-pe...