3 ms·
> Did we really avert 50M deaths by social distancing? No, not even close. > this implies that COVID deaths are also likely to have been reduced to ~1% from w
by caturopath 5y ago
> Did we really avert 50M deaths by social distancing?
No, not even close.
> this implies that COVID deaths are also likely to have been reduced to ~1% from what they would have been without said measures
I don't think it implies that. There is nothing that says that the anti-COVID measures are about as effective at preventing spread of COVID as spread of flu.
> 500K deaths
Closer to 600k :(
This is among 32MM cases reported to the CDC, probably more like 80MM cases total.
Ignoring lots of factors, our ceiling for COVID is more like 4-10x what we've experienced, not 100X.
- darkerside 5y agoI feel like you misunderstand the meaning of "implies", which is to suggest without explicitly saying. I think it is reasonable to assume that social distancing measures would have a similar effect, and in the absence of other data, the best estimate might be to assume they are proportional. Fortunately there are a couple of other answers in thread that answered this at a level of detail that I could understand.