3 ms·
This isn't true. The definition for a flu epidemic is two standard deviations above the expected cases for influenza that year, as estimated by a Serfling-type
by Fomite 5y ago
This isn't true.
The definition for a flu epidemic is two standard deviations above the expected cases for influenza that year, as estimated by a Serfling-type regression model using a negative binomial distribution.
Influenza just doesn't breach that barrier for more than a few weeks most years, and rarely in widespread geographic areas at once.
Compare that to SARS-CoV-2, where the expected number of cases is zero.
"Epidemic" means something more than "Lots".
- anoncake 5y agoThen that definition is garbage. How bad a disease is does not depend on how bad you expect it to be.
- Fomite 5y ago"Epidemic" isn't "Is a disease bad?". It's "Is this disease occurring at a level above expected?" You can have very serious endemic diseases - malaria is one example. But "Occurring to a level above expected" is an important piece of information all its own - for example, five cases of Smallpox, while only five cases, is something of an emergency, whereas five cases of influenza is not a serious crisis.