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> In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. This argument does not make sense because of the timing o

by nanis 6y ago

> In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. This argument does not make sense because of the timing of the disappearance of the flu. For example, NYS was having a really bad flu season before the Covid panic hit[1]. I am posting a link to my screenshot first because NYS flu tracker[1] is one of the stupidest web pages out there. Click on the "compare with previous seasons" heading on the page to get the current table. The noteworthy part is the drop in flu cases between the 6th and 7th weeks during what seems like an exceptionally bad flu season. Note also "Regulation for Prevention of Influenza Transmission by Healthcare and Residential Facility and Agency Personnel"[3]: > As of December 5, 2019, influenza is prevalent in NYS. > At this time, Section 2.59 of the New York State Sanitary Code (10 NYCRR § 2.59) requires all health care and residential facilities and agencies regulated pursuant to Article 28, 36, or 40 of the Public Health Law to ensure that all personnel, as defined in the regulation, not vaccinated against influenza for the current influenza season wear a surgical or procedure mask while in areas where patients or residents are typically present. > This page will be updated when the status changes. which apparently has not been updated since December 5, 2019. [1]: https://twitter.com/sinan_unur/status/1368882698966667265 https://twitter.com/sinan_unur/status/1368882698966667265 [2]: https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tra... [3]: https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/seasonal/providers/prevention_of_influenza_transmission/ https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/se... (archived <https://archive.is/wde1c https://archive.is/wde1c>)

nanis 6y ago
I find the downvotes interesting. Do you think the web page is actually well done? Or do you disagree with the observation that the drop between weeks 6 and 7 in 2020 (in the midst of a bad flu season) looks different? % ch in flu cases between weeks 6 and 7 in NYS 2017: -8% 2018: +9% 2019: +9% 2020: -17% 2021: -31% (really low absolute numbers) What caused flu cases to start falling in mid-February _before_ so called "public health measures"?[1] > The acceleration phase of a pandemic is complex and requires a multifaceted and rapidly adapting public health response. During a 3-week period in late February to early March, the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases increased more than 1,000-fold. Various community mitigation interventions were implemented with the aim of reducing further spread and controlling the impact on health care capacity. So, between CDC weeks 7 to 10, the a bad flu season disappears while COVID-19 cases increase 1,000-fold. What are the "public health measures" that explain this divergence? March 21, 2020[2]: > "To be clear, the state has the legal authority to overrule any locality's decision to issue an order of mass quarantine or shut down. No locality will be closing down. The mass transit system is not shutting down. These rumors, caused by undue anxiety, are just that - rumors." March 7, 2020[3]: > During a briefing on the novel coronavirus, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today declared a state of emergency to help New York more quickly and effectively contain the spread of the virus. February 29, 2020[4]: > "We'll start testing immediately here in New York, so we can handle more tests, more volume, turn them around faster, and we are ready to go and literally we can start testing immediately We have mobilized for emergencies before, and we're going to do it again." February 27, 2020[5]: > Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the total number of flu cases in New York State has eclipsed the record number of seasonal cases since the New York State Department of Health began tracking flu cases during the 1998-99 season. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e2.htm [2]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/statement-secretary-governor-melissa-derosa-regarding-rumors-new-york-city-and-mass-transit https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/statement-secretary-governo... [3]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/novel-coronavirus-briefing-governor-cuomo-declares-state-emergency-contain-spread-virus https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/novel-coronavirus-briefing-... [4]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-delivers-update-coronavirus https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript... [5]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-record-breaking-total-number-flu-cases-new-york-even-number-flu-cases https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-re...

by nanis 6y ago

nanis 6y ago

I find the downvotes interesting. Do you think the web page is actually well done? Or do you disagree with the observation that the drop between weeks 6 and 7 in 2020 (in the midst of a bad flu season) looks different? % ch in flu cases between weeks 6 and 7 in NYS 2017: -8% 2018: +9% 2019: +9% 2020: -17% 2021: -31% (really low absolute numbers) What caused flu cases to start falling in mid-February _before_ so called "public health measures"?[1] > The acceleration phase of a pandemic is complex and requires a multifaceted and rapidly adapting public health response. During a 3-week period in late February to early March, the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases increased more than 1,000-fold. Various community mitigation interventions were implemented with the aim of reducing further spread and controlling the impact on health care capacity. So, between CDC weeks 7 to 10, the a bad flu season disappears while COVID-19 cases increase 1,000-fold. What are the "public health measures" that explain this divergence? March 21, 2020[2]: > "To be clear, the state has the legal authority to overrule any locality's decision to issue an order of mass quarantine or shut down. No locality will be closing down. The mass transit system is not shutting down. These rumors, caused by undue anxiety, are just that - rumors." March 7, 2020[3]: > During a briefing on the novel coronavirus, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today declared a state of emergency to help New York more quickly and effectively contain the spread of the virus. February 29, 2020[4]: > "We'll start testing immediately here in New York, so we can handle more tests, more volume, turn them around faster, and we are ready to go and literally we can start testing immediately We have mobilized for emergencies before, and we're going to do it again." February 27, 2020[5]: > Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the total number of flu cases in New York State has eclipsed the record number of seasonal cases since the New York State Department of Health began tracking flu cases during the 1998-99 season. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e2.htm [2]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/statement-secretary-governor-melissa-derosa-regarding-rumors-new-york-city-and-mass-transit https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/statement-secretary-governo... [3]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/novel-coronavirus-briefing-governor-cuomo-declares-state-emergency-contain-spread-virus https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/novel-coronavirus-briefing-... [4]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-delivers-update-coronavirus https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript... [5]: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-record-breaking-total-number-flu-cases-new-york-even-number-flu-cases https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-re...