3 ms·

I remember reading a conspiracy theory back in ~ April 2020 that said "what happened to the flu" / "why are flu cases down so sharply?" It was literally so stu

by rconti 6y ago

I remember reading a conspiracy theory back in ~ April 2020 that said "what happened to the flu" / "why are flu cases down so sharply?" It was literally so stupid that it took me a minute or two to understand that the implication was that conspiracy theorists think flu cases were being categorized as covid.

audessuscest 6y ago
https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1387864442386325504 https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1387864442386325504
nickalaso 6y ago
Could you explain why this is "literally so stupid" when this appears to be what is happening? If lockdown measures, social distancing, mask wearing, etc. were the true cause of the massive reduction in flu cases, we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO. This doesn't appear to be happening. Instead, "the drop-off in flu numbers was both swift and universal." (article quote) This universality suggests a data problem to me rather than an environmental change.
- kaba0 6y ago
  > we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO. I don’t think so. Even without government policies in place, people become much much more vary of hygiene - that alone could account for a serious drop in new flu cases. The other factor as others mentioned is that someone with a weaker immune system who would have a pretty bad case of flu, had now a much higher chance of getting covid instead (due to covid quickly overtaking the number of cases due to its higher R number), so in a way covid being more infectious, sort of suffocated the flu.
- xxxxxxx12 6y ago
  There's a good clip from CBC in 2012 about flu surveillance and how it's an unverified estimate with very large bounds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mViFHqDD9hI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mViFHqDD9hI

by rconti 6y ago

audessuscest 6y ago

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1387864442386325504 https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1387864442386325504

nickalaso 6y ago

Could you explain why this is "literally so stupid" when this appears to be what is happening? If lockdown measures, social distancing, mask wearing, etc. were the true cause of the massive reduction in flu cases, we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO. This doesn't appear to be happening. Instead, "the drop-off in flu numbers was both swift and universal." (article quote) This universality suggests a data problem to me rather than an environmental change.

kaba0 6y ago
> we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO. I don’t think so. Even without government policies in place, people become much much more vary of hygiene - that alone could account for a serious drop in new flu cases. The other factor as others mentioned is that someone with a weaker immune system who would have a pretty bad case of flu, had now a much higher chance of getting covid instead (due to covid quickly overtaking the number of cases due to its higher R number), so in a way covid being more infectious, sort of suffocated the flu.
xxxxxxx12 6y ago
There's a good clip from CBC in 2012 about flu surveillance and how it's an unverified estimate with very large bounds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mViFHqDD9hI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mViFHqDD9hI