5 ms·

>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sen

by toss1 6y ago

>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0<1? The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinary in many countries), and especially better indoor ventilation systems would be a long-term benefit to everyone. I'm mostly hoping that the success of better sequencing, mRNA vaccine technology, and the rapid development deployed for CV-19 will also be applicable to influenza and help minimize or practically eliminate it. Are you assuming other measures?

pmoriarty 6y ago
"so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinary in many countries), and especially better indoor ventilation systems" Let's not forget a substantial portion of the population working from home, using less public transportation (choosing to travel by car when traveling at all), a huge decrease in tourism and large public gatherings, much less eating out at restaurants, contactless food delivery becoming the norm, etc. So many factors figure in to why much of the (wealthy, developed) world is a lot more resistant to contagious pathogens today than it was a year ago.
Mountain_Skies 6y ago
Politicians have shown themselves throughout this pandemic to be opportunistic authoritarians who obviously don't believe in their mandates since they break them themselves so frequently. There's no reason to expect that these sociopaths won't jump at the opportunity to drink more from the fountain of power again given the chance. Since they've gotten away with so much this time, they might even be tempted to go even further next time.
- toss1 6y ago
  Are you serious? If anything, politicians have vastly under-managed the situation, timidly afraid of offending constituents' offense at any inconvenience, and only partially at best following sound science. In states that did issue orders for masks and stay-at-home, the orders were weak, late, and lifted early, resulting in multiple waves that only abate now because of the rapid deployment of vaccines. Most importantly, there was very little and late funding to cover the costs of those who should most have been shut down, group travel, entertainment, dining, etc. - should have been fully shut down immediately, and everyone's costs covered. 6-10 weeks of hard shutdown, while standing up a full masking, test/trace/isolate protocol would have handled it, yet few countries did it. A few countries did implement early, strong, and effective measures, such as New Zealand. They also then opened up many months earlier than the rest of the world with near-normal life. Where are the politicians "drunk with power" who are restarting lockdowns for their own gratification? Where is the advantage for such a "drunk on power" politician? What could they possible gain by unnecessarily implementing measures that are seen at best by the smart ones who understand it as a necessary inconvenience, and by the rest as an assault on them? Even flat-out authoritarians do no such thing. E.g., China, who is unashamed to run literal concentration camps for Uyghur minorities, and who did hard lockdowns at the start, is not opening up as soon as scientifically feasible. Unless you can show some citations of evidence, this looks a lot less like a real phenomenon, and more like a pseudo-libertarian teenager's trope.
- michaelmrose 6y ago
  This is basically a fantasy. Public health measures that restrict freedom are unpopular even when they are justified. More than anything else your least favorite lawmaker wants to remain employed and to do so they will eventually bow to the will of the people even when the people are ignorant. Public health measures that you disdain aren't popular where they are because your neighbors want to step on your neck they are popular because people who know more than you do know they on net save lives. When there is nothing to be gained by such measure support will blow away like dust in the wind. There is no battle for you to fight.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
kiawe_fire 6y ago
Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though. Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forcibly prevented from leaving their homes “just because it’s flu season”. This may be necessary, at times, for COVID-19, but as you recognized, not for the normal flu. Given the spotty record of both public and private policy with regards to using actual science as a driver, these are not invalid concerns. Or put differently, rather than presuming that anyone against “doing something” is against “common sense” measures, perhaps we should be supportive of making sure that we do something, AND that the “something” that we do remain in the realm of common sense, to assuage the very real concerns that “doing something” could mean something more harmful than good.
- galangalalgol 6y ago
  The normal flu can be pretty bad. In 2018 the spike in total deaths in TX and surrounding states were between a third and a half of the covid spike in those regions. Masks might have been a good idea in 2018 and I hope they become part of our culture at least when you think you might be coming down with something. You know, that first day of a cold when you are telling yourself its allergies or drainage. Shutting down stores makes less sense.
  - jampekka 6y ago
    How about a culture and social support system where you can just stay home and rest if you feel something's up? Probably a lot more efficient than a mask, and would probably help with lots of other problems as well.
    - sokoloff 6y ago
      Plenty of people, hourly, gig, and self-employed people don’t get paid if they don’t work. You might be able to force some of those to be paid while sick-not-working, but the last category will be very difficult to address without either missing a lot of folks or creating tons of fraud and grift risk (and represent a lot of interactions with the public).

by toss1 6y ago

pmoriarty 6y ago

"so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinary in many countries), and especially better indoor ventilation systems" Let's not forget a substantial portion of the population working from home, using less public transportation (choosing to travel by car when traveling at all), a huge decrease in tourism and large public gatherings, much less eating out at restaurants, contactless food delivery becoming the norm, etc. So many factors figure in to why much of the (wealthy, developed) world is a lot more resistant to contagious pathogens today than it was a year ago.

Mountain_Skies 6y ago

Politicians have shown themselves throughout this pandemic to be opportunistic authoritarians who obviously don't believe in their mandates since they break them themselves so frequently. There's no reason to expect that these sociopaths won't jump at the opportunity to drink more from the fountain of power again given the chance. Since they've gotten away with so much this time, they might even be tempted to go even further next time.

toss1 6y ago
Are you serious? If anything, politicians have vastly under-managed the situation, timidly afraid of offending constituents' offense at any inconvenience, and only partially at best following sound science. In states that did issue orders for masks and stay-at-home, the orders were weak, late, and lifted early, resulting in multiple waves that only abate now because of the rapid deployment of vaccines. Most importantly, there was very little and late funding to cover the costs of those who should most have been shut down, group travel, entertainment, dining, etc. - should have been fully shut down immediately, and everyone's costs covered. 6-10 weeks of hard shutdown, while standing up a full masking, test/trace/isolate protocol would have handled it, yet few countries did it. A few countries did implement early, strong, and effective measures, such as New Zealand. They also then opened up many months earlier than the rest of the world with near-normal life. Where are the politicians "drunk with power" who are restarting lockdowns for their own gratification? Where is the advantage for such a "drunk on power" politician? What could they possible gain by unnecessarily implementing measures that are seen at best by the smart ones who understand it as a necessary inconvenience, and by the rest as an assault on them? Even flat-out authoritarians do no such thing. E.g., China, who is unashamed to run literal concentration camps for Uyghur minorities, and who did hard lockdowns at the start, is not opening up as soon as scientifically feasible. Unless you can show some citations of evidence, this looks a lot less like a real phenomenon, and more like a pseudo-libertarian teenager's trope.
michaelmrose 6y ago
This is basically a fantasy. Public health measures that restrict freedom are unpopular even when they are justified. More than anything else your least favorite lawmaker wants to remain employed and to do so they will eventually bow to the will of the people even when the people are ignorant. Public health measures that you disdain aren't popular where they are because your neighbors want to step on your neck they are popular because people who know more than you do know they on net save lives. When there is nothing to be gained by such measure support will blow away like dust in the wind. There is no battle for you to fight.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

kiawe_fire 6y ago

Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though. Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forcibly prevented from leaving their homes “just because it’s flu season”. This may be necessary, at times, for COVID-19, but as you recognized, not for the normal flu. Given the spotty record of both public and private policy with regards to using actual science as a driver, these are not invalid concerns. Or put differently, rather than presuming that anyone against “doing something” is against “common sense” measures, perhaps we should be supportive of making sure that we do something, AND that the “something” that we do remain in the realm of common sense, to assuage the very real concerns that “doing something” could mean something more harmful than good.

galangalalgol 6y ago
The normal flu can be pretty bad. In 2018 the spike in total deaths in TX and surrounding states were between a third and a half of the covid spike in those regions. Masks might have been a good idea in 2018 and I hope they become part of our culture at least when you think you might be coming down with something. You know, that first day of a cold when you are telling yourself its allergies or drainage. Shutting down stores makes less sense.
- jampekka 6y ago
  How about a culture and social support system where you can just stay home and rest if you feel something's up? Probably a lot more efficient than a mask, and would probably help with lots of other problems as well.
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    Plenty of people, hourly, gig, and self-employed people don’t get paid if they don’t work. You might be able to force some of those to be paid while sick-not-working, but the last category will be very difficult to address without either missing a lot of folks or creating tons of fraud and grift risk (and represent a lot of interactions with the public).