4 ms·

Last spring COVID was managing to achieve rapid spread at the same time that the flu season naturally ended. Despite the challenges in measuring R0 for both, t

by btilly 6y ago

Last spring COVID was managing to achieve rapid spread at the same time that the flu season naturally ended. Despite the challenges in measuring R0 for both, this is pretty direct evidence that R0 is higher for COVID than for the flu.

achenatx 6y ago
R0 is not static. As people become immune to the current strains and the virus mutates, people will still have partial immunity to the new strains. Some people will be fully immune depending on their antibody response and the mutations. Next year it is entirely possible that the R0 of covid drops below influenza. If you introduced influenza to a naive population (i.e. native americans) you would get massive death. <<Experts believe that as much as 90 percent of the American Indian population may have died from illnesses introduced to America by Europeans>>
- _nosewings_ 6y ago
  R0 is indeed static. It's R(t), the reproduction rate at time t, that is not static.
- emkoemko 6y ago
  how does that work? Native Americans didn't have disease Europeans where not exposed to? Only Europeans had diseases? any info about this? very interesting
  - afrodc_ 6y ago
    Europeans did bring back disease they weren't immune to: Europeans brought deadly viruses and bacteria, such as smallpox, measles, urope. Europeans brought deadly viruses and bacteria, such as smallpox, measles, typhus, and cholera, for which Native Americans had no immunity (Denevan, 1976). yphus, and cholera, for which Native Americans had no immunity (Denevan, 1976). On their return home, European sailors brought syphilis to Europe. Although less n their return home, European sailors brought syphilis to Europe. Although less deadly, the disease was known to have caused great social disruption throughout eadly, the disease was known to have caused great social disruption throughout the Old World (Sherman, 2007) https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/qian/resources/NunnQianJEP.pdf https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/qian/resources/... (Note that I haven't read this whole thing, but wanted to find a source for my little factoid)
  - btilly 6y ago
    It is one of the major points from Guns, Germs and Steel. Most of our major diseases have transferred from domestic animals. For example both measles and smallpox (the two most deadly diseases for Native Americans) come from cows. Europeans successfully domesticated animals, Native Americans did not. So Europeans had diseases that Native Americans were not adapted to.
  - Stupulous 6y ago
    I believe the theory is that Europeans kept various domesticated animals and Native Americans had far fewer, and that those animals were frequently sources of new diseases. Europe was also more interconnected, so diseases may have spread farther while Native diseases died out. See the wiki page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_...
    - emkoemko 6y ago
      ohh that makes sense, thanks

by btilly 6y ago

achenatx 6y ago

R0 is not static. As people become immune to the current strains and the virus mutates, people will still have partial immunity to the new strains. Some people will be fully immune depending on their antibody response and the mutations. Next year it is entirely possible that the R0 of covid drops below influenza. If you introduced influenza to a naive population (i.e. native americans) you would get massive death. <<Experts believe that as much as 90 percent of the American Indian population may have died from illnesses introduced to America by Europeans>>

_nosewings_ 6y ago
R0 is indeed static. It's R(t), the reproduction rate at time t, that is not static.
emkoemko 6y ago
how does that work? Native Americans didn't have disease Europeans where not exposed to? Only Europeans had diseases? any info about this? very interesting
- afrodc_ 6y ago
  Europeans did bring back disease they weren't immune to: Europeans brought deadly viruses and bacteria, such as smallpox, measles, urope. Europeans brought deadly viruses and bacteria, such as smallpox, measles, typhus, and cholera, for which Native Americans had no immunity (Denevan, 1976). yphus, and cholera, for which Native Americans had no immunity (Denevan, 1976). On their return home, European sailors brought syphilis to Europe. Although less n their return home, European sailors brought syphilis to Europe. Although less deadly, the disease was known to have caused great social disruption throughout eadly, the disease was known to have caused great social disruption throughout the Old World (Sherman, 2007) https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/qian/resources/NunnQianJEP.pdf https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/qian/resources/... (Note that I haven't read this whole thing, but wanted to find a source for my little factoid)
- btilly 6y ago
  It is one of the major points from Guns, Germs and Steel. Most of our major diseases have transferred from domestic animals. For example both measles and smallpox (the two most deadly diseases for Native Americans) come from cows. Europeans successfully domesticated animals, Native Americans did not. So Europeans had diseases that Native Americans were not adapted to.
- Stupulous 6y ago
  I believe the theory is that Europeans kept various domesticated animals and Native Americans had far fewer, and that those animals were frequently sources of new diseases. Europe was also more interconnected, so diseases may have spread farther while Native diseases died out. See the wiki page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_epidemics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_...
  - emkoemko 6y ago
    ohh that makes sense, thanks