6 ms·

Hi there, Hopper engineer here. The blog post is pretty accurate from my experience (lowest prices ~3 months out) but if you apply any of this logic to the past

Hi there, Hopper engineer here. The blog post is pretty accurate from my experience (lowest prices ~3 months out) but if you apply any of this logic to the past year then you're going to have a bad time. The pandemic caused the entire industry to lower their average flight prices and now that things are starting to return to normal, so are prices. Because of that, predicting price trends based on historic data is a bit tougher. If you use iOS (not sure if we have it on Android just yet) then I'd recommend looking for something called "auto-buy" when you search for a flight. It's basically a limit order for flights and it'll allow you to set a price that you would be comfortable buying at. If the fare dips to that price then it'll book for you. We've seen some insane deals get booked through this product. Just looking at some of them from yesterday there was a round-trip flight from NFO (Norfolk, Virgina) to MCO (Orlando, Florida) that we originally price quoted at $284 for the user and it was booked at $166.

rwmurrayVT 5y ago
Norfolk's airport is ORF.
- atdrummond 5y ago
  A shame that the flight wasn't between NFO and MCO; I would love to book a ticket between Orlando and Tonga for only $166.
- nerdponx 5y ago
  Some cities have their own (not really official AFAIK) codes that represent "any airport in this city", such as "NYC" meaning LGA, JFK, EWR, and maybe also HPN and/or SWF. I think these are mostly created by app/site developers but I could be wrong.
  - splonk 5y ago
    They're metropolitan area codes (https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Metropolitan_area_airport_codes https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Metropolitan_area_airport_cod...). They're not consistently useful across sites because different sites connect to different backends (GDS) that may or may not accept them, but it's nice if you consistently use a site that does. Back when Hipmunk was alive QSF was useful to me because it used Sabre as the GDS and would translate it as {SFO, OAK, SJC}. Other sites would show you an airport in Algeria. Edit: I should note that you should be careful when using these - at least once I accidentally booked a ticket that left from SFO and returned to SJC.
    - nerdponx 5y ago
      That's the term, it's been a while since I had to work with this stuff. I don't remember if I ever was able to use the metro codes to look up data from a GDS, but I do remember that I once ended up with a dataset where I had to heuristically disambiguate those codes from proper IATA codes; that sucked.
  - rwmurrayVT 5y ago
    That would require Norfolk to be big enough for two airports :/ The next closest is Williamsburg/Newport News and then Richmond.
  - rockostrich 5y ago
    You're right, but it was just a brain fart on my part. It was ORF and I don't think Norfolk has a city IATA code.
- rockostrich 5y ago
  Ah you're right. Looking at that slack message again it was ORF. Not sure why I wrote NFO.
novok 5y ago
Why don't you have a web interface?
_boffin_ 5y ago
Why do you not allow for functionality on your website, but force users to use an app?
- SpikedCola 5y ago
  They actually tease you by pretending to show results on their website [0] but when you click on any of the flights it just takes you to their homepage. [0] https://www.hopper.com/deals/best/from/city-toronto-YTO/to/city-paris-PAR https://www.hopper.com/deals/best/from/city-toronto-YTO/to/c...
  - _boffin_ 5y ago
    yeah... i find that a bit disgusting.
  - rockostrich 5y ago
    I'm impressed you even found that. AFAIK there's no link to it anywhere from hopper.com. It was a little SEO project that one of the engineers that's been here a while worked on using our internal prediction APIs. Something like it existed in the app at one point, but the engagement we saw with it was pretty miniscule.
    - SpikedCola 5y ago
      Appreciate the kind response. Those pages are linked right on the homepage, I clicked on the Paris[0] one. [0] https://i.imgur.com/7ey6spH.png https://i.imgur.com/7ey6spH.png
      - rockostrich 5y ago
        Oh wow, goes to show you what I know... I assume when we were working with the company we contracted out to build that fancy website they asked if we had anything to link to for flight deals that we were just like "this engineer had a little pet project you could link to". The funny thing is a new hire just asked why we didn't have anything in the app for "best deals in general from my city" and I responded by linking to that project. It used to exist as its own separate app called "Get The Flight Out" but for some reason we removed it from the app store. We also had a feature devoted to something similar for "flexible watching" but it never got much engagement and it didn't warrant the infrastructure cost it required to keep up.
ecshafer 5y ago
Why do you have some features on ios but not android? Why isn't this on your website. Maybe I am old (possible), weird (probable), and out touch (definitely). But I couldn't imagine the case where I am planning on doing research for travel and I would go to an app over a website. For looking at data, typing things in, comparing prices, etc. A phone app really is the worst form factor for that. I am not sure how big your company is, or how its done. But your product owners are dropping the ball in my opinion. I backed out of the website as soon as I found I couldn't do anything from the website.
- Accacin 5y ago
  I guess I'm also old, weird, and out of touch :) I cannot begin to describe the annoyance I experience with filling in forms on a mobile device, especially if I'm hunting for a good deal `to -> from` and need to keep going back and slightly modifying my search params. Phones just aren't good at this use-case. Being (very) cynical, the only reason they're providing a mobile app is because of all the data they harvest (https://www.hopper.com/legal/privacy-policy/ https://www.hopper.com/legal/privacy-policy/).
  - drewg123 5y ago
    This. I also lost interest as soon as I saw the website just re-directed me to an app.
  - roachpepe 5y ago
    Yeah, same. Guess the old saying "if something's "free" then you're the product" hits home here too. Forcing the mobile app is a deal breaker.
    - rockostrich 5y ago
      While that saying applies for things like social media and such, it isn't the case for Hopper because you still have to pay for travel. The app is free, but you still have to pay for any flights or hotels that you book. Usually when an app or online service is free, then you'll see ads serving you content associated with your search behavior because that's the only way that service could monetize itself. Hopper's founder has been pretty adamant that we'll never serve advertisements in the app and we wouldn't be selling user data to 3rd parties and at least in my 4 years at the company that promise has been kept. I would hand in my resignation if we started serving ads in the app.
snowwrestler 5y ago
Just want to say that Hopper is fantastic. Love the simple app design and I’ve gotten some great deals with it. I’m at least one HN reader who does a lot of travel planning on his phone. The only time I remember the predictions failing badly was booking a flight for the 2017 full eclipse. Hopper kept advising that prices would fall, and no surprise, they never did. Obviously historic data was little help for a rare social event like an eclipse.
ricardobeat 5y ago
Thanks for your answer! This was maybe 2-3 years ago, way before the pandemic hit. I started watching a flight - probably AMS-SAO - a few months in advance and all I got were alerts for the fares going up every other week. Pulled the plug at some point with the usual [expensive] fare. Maybe I was just unlucky.

rwmurrayVT 5y ago

Norfolk's airport is ORF.

atdrummond 5y ago
A shame that the flight wasn't between NFO and MCO; I would love to book a ticket between Orlando and Tonga for only $166.
nerdponx 5y ago
Some cities have their own (not really official AFAIK) codes that represent "any airport in this city", such as "NYC" meaning LGA, JFK, EWR, and maybe also HPN and/or SWF. I think these are mostly created by app/site developers but I could be wrong.
- splonk 5y ago
  They're metropolitan area codes (https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Metropolitan_area_airport_codes https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Metropolitan_area_airport_cod...). They're not consistently useful across sites because different sites connect to different backends (GDS) that may or may not accept them, but it's nice if you consistently use a site that does. Back when Hipmunk was alive QSF was useful to me because it used Sabre as the GDS and would translate it as {SFO, OAK, SJC}. Other sites would show you an airport in Algeria. Edit: I should note that you should be careful when using these - at least once I accidentally booked a ticket that left from SFO and returned to SJC.
  - nerdponx 5y ago
    That's the term, it's been a while since I had to work with this stuff. I don't remember if I ever was able to use the metro codes to look up data from a GDS, but I do remember that I once ended up with a dataset where I had to heuristically disambiguate those codes from proper IATA codes; that sucked.
- rwmurrayVT 5y ago
  That would require Norfolk to be big enough for two airports :/ The next closest is Williamsburg/Newport News and then Richmond.
- rockostrich 5y ago
  You're right, but it was just a brain fart on my part. It was ORF and I don't think Norfolk has a city IATA code.
rockostrich 5y ago
Ah you're right. Looking at that slack message again it was ORF. Not sure why I wrote NFO.

novok 5y ago

Why don't you have a web interface?

_boffin_ 5y ago

Why do you not allow for functionality on your website, but force users to use an app?

SpikedCola 5y ago
They actually tease you by pretending to show results on their website [0] but when you click on any of the flights it just takes you to their homepage. [0] https://www.hopper.com/deals/best/from/city-toronto-YTO/to/city-paris-PAR https://www.hopper.com/deals/best/from/city-toronto-YTO/to/c...
- _boffin_ 5y ago
  yeah... i find that a bit disgusting.
- rockostrich 5y ago
  I'm impressed you even found that. AFAIK there's no link to it anywhere from hopper.com. It was a little SEO project that one of the engineers that's been here a while worked on using our internal prediction APIs. Something like it existed in the app at one point, but the engagement we saw with it was pretty miniscule.
  - SpikedCola 5y ago
    Appreciate the kind response. Those pages are linked right on the homepage, I clicked on the Paris[0] one. [0] https://i.imgur.com/7ey6spH.png https://i.imgur.com/7ey6spH.png
    - rockostrich 5y ago
      Oh wow, goes to show you what I know... I assume when we were working with the company we contracted out to build that fancy website they asked if we had anything to link to for flight deals that we were just like "this engineer had a little pet project you could link to". The funny thing is a new hire just asked why we didn't have anything in the app for "best deals in general from my city" and I responded by linking to that project. It used to exist as its own separate app called "Get The Flight Out" but for some reason we removed it from the app store. We also had a feature devoted to something similar for "flexible watching" but it never got much engagement and it didn't warrant the infrastructure cost it required to keep up.

ecshafer 5y ago

Why do you have some features on ios but not android? Why isn't this on your website. Maybe I am old (possible), weird (probable), and out touch (definitely). But I couldn't imagine the case where I am planning on doing research for travel and I would go to an app over a website. For looking at data, typing things in, comparing prices, etc. A phone app really is the worst form factor for that. I am not sure how big your company is, or how its done. But your product owners are dropping the ball in my opinion. I backed out of the website as soon as I found I couldn't do anything from the website.

Accacin 5y ago
I guess I'm also old, weird, and out of touch :) I cannot begin to describe the annoyance I experience with filling in forms on a mobile device, especially if I'm hunting for a good deal `to -> from` and need to keep going back and slightly modifying my search params. Phones just aren't good at this use-case. Being (very) cynical, the only reason they're providing a mobile app is because of all the data they harvest (https://www.hopper.com/legal/privacy-policy/ https://www.hopper.com/legal/privacy-policy/).
- drewg123 5y ago
  This. I also lost interest as soon as I saw the website just re-directed me to an app.
- roachpepe 5y ago
  Yeah, same. Guess the old saying "if something's "free" then you're the product" hits home here too. Forcing the mobile app is a deal breaker.
  - rockostrich 5y ago
    While that saying applies for things like social media and such, it isn't the case for Hopper because you still have to pay for travel. The app is free, but you still have to pay for any flights or hotels that you book. Usually when an app or online service is free, then you'll see ads serving you content associated with your search behavior because that's the only way that service could monetize itself. Hopper's founder has been pretty adamant that we'll never serve advertisements in the app and we wouldn't be selling user data to 3rd parties and at least in my 4 years at the company that promise has been kept. I would hand in my resignation if we started serving ads in the app.

snowwrestler 5y ago

Just want to say that Hopper is fantastic. Love the simple app design and I’ve gotten some great deals with it. I’m at least one HN reader who does a lot of travel planning on his phone. The only time I remember the predictions failing badly was booking a flight for the 2017 full eclipse. Hopper kept advising that prices would fall, and no surprise, they never did. Obviously historic data was little help for a rare social event like an eclipse.

ricardobeat 5y ago

Thanks for your answer! This was maybe 2-3 years ago, way before the pandemic hit. I started watching a flight - probably AMS-SAO - a few months in advance and all I got were alerts for the fares going up every other week. Pulled the plug at some point with the usual [expensive] fare. Maybe I was just unlucky.