5 ms·

> Florida has been wide open since last summer (over 9 months now) and has performed about the same as California. Remember that Florida has a significantly ol

> Florida has been wide open since last summer (over 9 months now) and has performed about the same as California. Remember that Florida has a significantly older population than California too. 2.1% of the population >85 years old vs 1.3%; 17.6% over 65 years old vs 10.6%. COVID deaths are very concentrated in the elderly. The CDC estimates that the 85+ age group has a 8700x higher chance an infection leading to death, and a 95x higher chance of infection leading to hospitalization, than the 5-17 age group. The article appears to be using non-age-adjusted excess deaths. So California and Florida being equal is a strong sign that California did significantly worse. https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/florida/demographic-statistics https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/florida/demographic-sta... https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-statistics https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...

melling 5y ago
How much other causation have you looked into? For example population density? Miami is a small city of 500,000 people.
- floxy 5y ago
  The Miami metropolitan area population is 6,000,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistic... ...with a density of 1004 people / sq. mi., compared to the NY metro area with a density of 5313 people / sq. mi.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_metropolitan_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_metropolitan_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area#combined_statistical_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area#com...
  - melling 5y ago
    Yes, NY is clearly is densely populated. I guess I would look for the differences with California. LA has more people (13.2 million) but appears to be less densely populated with 550 people per sq mile. I didn’t follow California but I know Florida was offered as a place that not locking down worked. I can look into it a little more. Florida has a lot of cases, and most came after the first wave. The same with Texas.

melling 5y ago

How much other causation have you looked into? For example population density? Miami is a small city of 500,000 people.

floxy 5y ago
The Miami metropolitan area population is 6,000,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistic... ...with a density of 1004 people / sq. mi., compared to the NY metro area with a density of 5313 people / sq. mi.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_metropolitan_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_metropolitan_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area#combined_statistical_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area#com...
- melling 5y ago
  Yes, NY is clearly is densely populated. I guess I would look for the differences with California. LA has more people (13.2 million) but appears to be less densely populated with 550 people per sq mile. I didn’t follow California but I know Florida was offered as a place that not locking down worked. I can look into it a little more. Florida has a lot of cases, and most came after the first wave. The same with Texas.