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> Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade I owned a Tesla, I would not take this bet. Apple makes opinionated decisions, similar to Tesla,

> Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade I owned a Tesla, I would not take this bet. Apple makes opinionated decisions, similar to Tesla, but they also make a quality product. Tesla struggles mightily with that. People are surprisingly loyal when it comes to car purchases, and Tesla's lack of reliability will come back to bite them in the ass. There are too many good options coming down the pipe. Heck, the Ford Mach-E all by itself is the epitome of why Tesla won't be the next Apple. It is a better Model Y than the Model Y. Ford really hit that one out of the park IMO, and that's just their opening salvo. As more of the real car companies start bringing out real cars, just powered by electricity, it's going to be great.

maxharris 6y ago
People that bought new Apple products early in Apple's rise had similar experiences. As new product categories were introduced from the 1998 iMac onward, more technical users complained about nits in "rev A" products, tending to wait for the second revision ("rev B") to buy. For example, here's a post from 2006 asking "Wait for rev B?" about the then-new Intel-based iMacs: https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 You are right that some existing automakers will succeed. Still, I believe that in a decade's time the consensus view about this will be that Tesla won.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  Who knows, 10 years is a long time and most of my predictions are 50/50 even a year out :). Still, I feel relatively confident based on past history (I'm a car nut, and have been for the last few decades), the incumbent manufacturers are very capable and have a valuable pool of experience to draw from. What I truly expect to happen is that some manufacturers will try to emulate Tesla and fail. Some will remember that they know how to make cars, and that people want cars not computers on wheels, and they'll make good cars that just happen to use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. These latter manufacturers will be very successful. The whole touchscreen-on-wheels fad is just that, a fad. On average, people's taste in cars is evolutionary, not revolutionary.

maxharris 6y ago

People that bought new Apple products early in Apple's rise had similar experiences. As new product categories were introduced from the 1998 iMac onward, more technical users complained about nits in "rev A" products, tending to wait for the second revision ("rev B") to buy. For example, here's a post from 2006 asking "Wait for rev B?" about the then-new Intel-based iMacs: https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 You are right that some existing automakers will succeed. Still, I believe that in a decade's time the consensus view about this will be that Tesla won.

rootusrootus 6y ago
Who knows, 10 years is a long time and most of my predictions are 50/50 even a year out :). Still, I feel relatively confident based on past history (I'm a car nut, and have been for the last few decades), the incumbent manufacturers are very capable and have a valuable pool of experience to draw from. What I truly expect to happen is that some manufacturers will try to emulate Tesla and fail. Some will remember that they know how to make cars, and that people want cars not computers on wheels, and they'll make good cars that just happen to use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. These latter manufacturers will be very successful. The whole touchscreen-on-wheels fad is just that, a fad. On average, people's taste in cars is evolutionary, not revolutionary.