4 ms·

I searched through the full report: There were six mentions of Tesla. * just two mentions of General Motors * one mention of Volkswagen, Ford, Volvo, etc. *

I searched through the full report: There were six mentions of Tesla. * just two mentions of General Motors * one mention of Volkswagen, Ford, Volvo, etc. * only one mention of Hyundai about its hydrogen trucks * zero mentions of Toyota, BMW, FCA, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda It's true that I'm looking at too small a sample here to draw a conclusion just from this report alone. But given the fact that Tesla has been investing in electric vehicle development for the better part of two decades while every other automaker was resting on their laurels, I think it's fair to add it to the mountain of evidence that Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade. I know that legacy automakers will eventually produce some good EVs, and I'm glad that they are finally appearing to take this seriously. However, I think that many of them will not survive the coming wave of consolidation. In general they are far too indebted, too dependent on marketing, and lack the vertical integration required to deliver affordable EVs in volume. I think the Apple analogy is especially apt: since the iPhone was unveiled, Apple has earned the majority of the profits in the smartphone market. There are good reasons to think that this effect will be even more pronounced for Tesla, given the fact that it is developing large-scale manufacturing capacity on each continent (whereas every iPhone is only made in China). Add its massive growth in the energy storage and leadership in autonomous vehicles and the full picture becomes even clearer. (Yes, I have a large position in $TSLA. No, I'm quite certain that this post will not move the stock even a cent. My point is only that in a few years time, Tesla will dominate multiple industries, and the auto market will be just one of them.)

rootusrootus 5y ago
> Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade I owned a Tesla, I would not take this bet. Apple makes opinionated decisions, similar to Tesla, but they also make a quality product. Tesla struggles mightily with that. People are surprisingly loyal when it comes to car purchases, and Tesla's lack of reliability will come back to bite them in the ass. There are too many good options coming down the pipe. Heck, the Ford Mach-E all by itself is the epitome of why Tesla won't be the next Apple. It is a better Model Y than the Model Y. Ford really hit that one out of the park IMO, and that's just their opening salvo. As more of the real car companies start bringing out real cars, just powered by electricity, it's going to be great.
- maxharris 5y ago
  People that bought new Apple products early in Apple's rise had similar experiences. As new product categories were introduced from the 1998 iMac onward, more technical users complained about nits in "rev A" products, tending to wait for the second revision ("rev B") to buy. For example, here's a post from 2006 asking "Wait for rev B?" about the then-new Intel-based iMacs: https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 You are right that some existing automakers will succeed. Still, I believe that in a decade's time the consensus view about this will be that Tesla won.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    Who knows, 10 years is a long time and most of my predictions are 50/50 even a year out :). Still, I feel relatively confident based on past history (I'm a car nut, and have been for the last few decades), the incumbent manufacturers are very capable and have a valuable pool of experience to draw from. What I truly expect to happen is that some manufacturers will try to emulate Tesla and fail. Some will remember that they know how to make cars, and that people want cars not computers on wheels, and they'll make good cars that just happen to use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. These latter manufacturers will be very successful. The whole touchscreen-on-wheels fad is just that, a fad. On average, people's taste in cars is evolutionary, not revolutionary.
bryanlarsen 5y ago
I think you're right. But unfortunately $TSLA is already priced assuming it. If we knew which other companies would survive the coming shakeup we could make a lot more money buying them than Tesla.
nostrademons 5y ago
Depends what you view as the core competency of an automaker. Tesla has large leads in battery technology, software, and electric drivetrains. But they suck at manufacturing and quality control. Meanwhile Japanese & Korean automakers like Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Subaru, etc. have spent literally decades perfecting manufacturing, QC, supply chain management, etc. It's a question of whether you can see legacy automakers catching up on the "electric" part before Tesla perfects the "car" part. IMHO I think Tesla's strongest moat is in the battery technology and production capacity. Electric drivetrain components are a commodity, and Toyota etc. have had them for 2 decades with their hybrids. Software is also hard, and Tesla understands that more than legacy automakers - but actual software companies like Google & Apple are now getting into the auto business and selling their software solutions to automaker OEMs, and they can do a much more compelling software product than Tesla can. Doing QC, supply chains, and manufacturing right is harder than most startups think, and that's where Tesla really falls down. Also, personally I won't buy any Tesla product other than the PowerWall (where they actually do have a strong competitive advantage and solid manufacturing). Heard too many horror stories about their cars, their solar panels, their solar panel installation, their roofs, their self-driving car software, etc. Quality issues early on become very persistent brand issues, and it's hard to change the perception of selling an unreliable product once ingrained. (Interestingly, sometimes you don't have to - people buy BMWs and Ferraris despite them having shit reliability records. Sometimes because they have shit reliability records - being able to afford a BMW and its repairs is a mark of having income & time to spare. But that automatically locks you into the luxury Veblen-goods market; you'll never sell to hassled parents if they keep hearing stories about how your products are unsafe, have manufacturing defects, and require frequent repairs.)

rootusrootus 5y ago

> Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade I owned a Tesla, I would not take this bet. Apple makes opinionated decisions, similar to Tesla, but they also make a quality product. Tesla struggles mightily with that. People are surprisingly loyal when it comes to car purchases, and Tesla's lack of reliability will come back to bite them in the ass. There are too many good options coming down the pipe. Heck, the Ford Mach-E all by itself is the epitome of why Tesla won't be the next Apple. It is a better Model Y than the Model Y. Ford really hit that one out of the park IMO, and that's just their opening salvo. As more of the real car companies start bringing out real cars, just powered by electricity, it's going to be great.

maxharris 5y ago
People that bought new Apple products early in Apple's rise had similar experiences. As new product categories were introduced from the 1998 iMac onward, more technical users complained about nits in "rev A" products, tending to wait for the second revision ("rev B") to buy. For example, here's a post from 2006 asking "Wait for rev B?" about the then-new Intel-based iMacs: https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 https://discussions.apple.com/thread/482029?page=2 You are right that some existing automakers will succeed. Still, I believe that in a decade's time the consensus view about this will be that Tesla won.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  Who knows, 10 years is a long time and most of my predictions are 50/50 even a year out :). Still, I feel relatively confident based on past history (I'm a car nut, and have been for the last few decades), the incumbent manufacturers are very capable and have a valuable pool of experience to draw from. What I truly expect to happen is that some manufacturers will try to emulate Tesla and fail. Some will remember that they know how to make cars, and that people want cars not computers on wheels, and they'll make good cars that just happen to use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. These latter manufacturers will be very successful. The whole touchscreen-on-wheels fad is just that, a fad. On average, people's taste in cars is evolutionary, not revolutionary.

bryanlarsen 5y ago

I think you're right. But unfortunately $TSLA is already priced assuming it. If we knew which other companies would survive the coming shakeup we could make a lot more money buying them than Tesla.

nostrademons 5y ago

Depends what you view as the core competency of an automaker. Tesla has large leads in battery technology, software, and electric drivetrains. But they suck at manufacturing and quality control. Meanwhile Japanese & Korean automakers like Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Subaru, etc. have spent literally decades perfecting manufacturing, QC, supply chain management, etc. It's a question of whether you can see legacy automakers catching up on the "electric" part before Tesla perfects the "car" part. IMHO I think Tesla's strongest moat is in the battery technology and production capacity. Electric drivetrain components are a commodity, and Toyota etc. have had them for 2 decades with their hybrids. Software is also hard, and Tesla understands that more than legacy automakers - but actual software companies like Google & Apple are now getting into the auto business and selling their software solutions to automaker OEMs, and they can do a much more compelling software product than Tesla can. Doing QC, supply chains, and manufacturing right is harder than most startups think, and that's where Tesla really falls down. Also, personally I won't buy any Tesla product other than the PowerWall (where they actually do have a strong competitive advantage and solid manufacturing). Heard too many horror stories about their cars, their solar panels, their solar panel installation, their roofs, their self-driving car software, etc. Quality issues early on become very persistent brand issues, and it's hard to change the perception of selling an unreliable product once ingrained. (Interestingly, sometimes you don't have to - people buy BMWs and Ferraris despite them having shit reliability records. Sometimes because they have shit reliability records - being able to afford a BMW and its repairs is a mark of having income & time to spare. But that automatically locks you into the luxury Veblen-goods market; you'll never sell to hassled parents if they keep hearing stories about how your products are unsafe, have manufacturing defects, and require frequent repairs.)