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I've got a number of concerns with the accuracy of your historical analysis here, but I'll limit myself to a couple: > (WW2 in Europe started due to US isolati

I've got a number of concerns with the accuracy of your historical analysis here, but I'll limit myself to a couple: > (WW2 in Europe started due to US isolationism. Both Germany and Japan thought of the US as country bumpkins in 1940. In 1940, Hitler's actual words, which presumably were not too different from the rest of the Nazi leadership, were "WHAT is America but beauty queens, millionaires, stupid records and Hollywood?" That doesn't sound much like bumpkinism to me. (Not to mention the Henry Ford connection, or the IBM one) > Considering Germany couldn't invade Britain, which is only 20 or so miles from France, you can see how 80 miles is a very strong deterrent. How do you explain June 6th 1944? The Nazis didn't do Operation Sealion because it was too far, they didn't do it because they didn't have air and naval superiority.

captainredbeard 6y ago
China does have a ton of sealift capability and for practical purposes can deny us access to the strait. On the flip side, their ships would be highly vulnerable to anti-ship missiles from ground-based, air-based, sea-based, sub-based, and potentially even space based systems. Once there, Taiwan is fortified and ready to fight with a large army. China will be unable to establish air superiority due to Taiwanese 4th gen fighters plus air support from American and Japanese assets, along with the ANZACs if they have any gumption left in them.
- bigbillheck 6y ago
  > On the flip side, their ships would be highly vulnerable to anti-ship missiles The PRC's been pushing hard on anti-ship missile capabilities and I don't know if I'd say they're any worse off than we are.
  - captainredbeard 6y ago
    That is correct. I'm talking about Taiwan defending itself. US air would come from Okinawa, Guam, and aircraft carriers parked outside China's hypersonic missile defense range (which, BTW, can travel that far only if they have a firing solution, which at such distances will be difficult to establish).
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  The key is 18,000 ships. We don't have enough missiles to destroy a screen that large. (This is not a well-known strategy, since it's the first time in history a country had this "capability.")

captainredbeard 6y ago

China does have a ton of sealift capability and for practical purposes can deny us access to the strait. On the flip side, their ships would be highly vulnerable to anti-ship missiles from ground-based, air-based, sea-based, sub-based, and potentially even space based systems. Once there, Taiwan is fortified and ready to fight with a large army. China will be unable to establish air superiority due to Taiwanese 4th gen fighters plus air support from American and Japanese assets, along with the ANZACs if they have any gumption left in them.

bigbillheck 6y ago
> On the flip side, their ships would be highly vulnerable to anti-ship missiles The PRC's been pushing hard on anti-ship missile capabilities and I don't know if I'd say they're any worse off than we are.
- captainredbeard 6y ago
  That is correct. I'm talking about Taiwan defending itself. US air would come from Okinawa, Guam, and aircraft carriers parked outside China's hypersonic missile defense range (which, BTW, can travel that far only if they have a firing solution, which at such distances will be difficult to establish).
redis_mlc 6y ago
The key is 18,000 ships. We don't have enough missiles to destroy a screen that large. (This is not a well-known strategy, since it's the first time in history a country had this "capability.")