4 ms·

The point he's making in that section is that by accounting for voluntary changes in human behavior (or failing to account for it as many models did) will drast

The point he's making in that section is that by accounting for voluntary changes in human behavior (or failing to account for it as many models did) will drastically affect the results of any model that attempts to predict the rate of spread.

Retric 6y ago
Human behavior is also influenced by messaging. You can’t assume economically rational actors in the real world when modeling actual behavior as people don’t know actual risks etc. In a non lockdown world where schools are open and attendance is mandatory... well it’s clear to the average person the government doesn’t think people need to stay home. Sure, old people are dying in hospitals but I am 40 so it’s nothing to worry about etc. However, shut everything down and people get the message that this is serious irrespective of the actual dangers they personally face.
- xxxxxxx12 6y ago
  > shut everything down and people get the message that this is serious the Pajama Class say this and then wonder why their "messaging" doesn't go over well with anyone who's not able to log into zoom and chat it up with their comfortable, salaried, urban-elitist compatriots
  - Retric 6y ago
    I am sorry that reality doesn’t line up with your preconceived notions so you feel the need to lash out with name calling etc. Consider sitting, back taking a deep breath, and then stepping away from the computer to do something you enjoy.
    - xxxxxxx12 6y ago
      > reality doesn’t line up with your preconceived notions I'm claiming this precise thing, that you're arrogantly presuming that everyone can just hole up in their house like the elite class of people who do nothing but berate the (almost always) lower class people who do not have the privilege to stay home.
      - joshuamorton 6y ago
        > that you're arrogantly presuming that everyone Gp didn't claim that. You're putting words in their mouth and lashing out for things they never said. A reasonable interpretation of their claims is that even if not everyone can hole up, government policies that are intense encourage everyone to hole up as much as they can. It's also worth mentioning that many, many working class people did not enjoy the fact that they had to take on risk in order to survive. Pretending everything is fine simply offloads even more risk onto those people.
        xxxxxxx12 6y ago
        You do realize that normative claims like "they ought", "government should", etc. are precisely the faculty-lounge, haughty idealism, that's worth absolutely nothing to people as they are, spoken from a position of privilege, condescension and fake expertise? Notice how teachers act as though they're above everyone else? Refusing to work, whereas normal people that aren't of means largely kept working, and didn't act like paranoid agoraphobes exaggerating their actual risk? It's no secret that most people overestimate their risk by an order(if not multiple) of magnitude.
        joshuamorton 6y ago
        This has nothing to do with what I or the other poster said. I'll reiterate that many people who were forced to work were not happy about that fact. You're somewhere between pretending those people don't exist and claiming that those lower class people who didn't want to work but had to are also morally bankrupt. It's neither coherent nor respectful of those you claim to be defending.
        xxxxxxx12 6y ago
        Per your bio, you work at Google. You're divorced from the experience of struggling people.
        6y ago

Retric 6y ago

Human behavior is also influenced by messaging. You can’t assume economically rational actors in the real world when modeling actual behavior as people don’t know actual risks etc. In a non lockdown world where schools are open and attendance is mandatory... well it’s clear to the average person the government doesn’t think people need to stay home. Sure, old people are dying in hospitals but I am 40 so it’s nothing to worry about etc. However, shut everything down and people get the message that this is serious irrespective of the actual dangers they personally face.

xxxxxxx12 6y ago
> shut everything down and people get the message that this is serious the Pajama Class say this and then wonder why their "messaging" doesn't go over well with anyone who's not able to log into zoom and chat it up with their comfortable, salaried, urban-elitist compatriots
- Retric 6y ago
  I am sorry that reality doesn’t line up with your preconceived notions so you feel the need to lash out with name calling etc. Consider sitting, back taking a deep breath, and then stepping away from the computer to do something you enjoy.
  - xxxxxxx12 6y ago
    > reality doesn’t line up with your preconceived notions I'm claiming this precise thing, that you're arrogantly presuming that everyone can just hole up in their house like the elite class of people who do nothing but berate the (almost always) lower class people who do not have the privilege to stay home.
    - joshuamorton 6y ago
      > that you're arrogantly presuming that everyone Gp didn't claim that. You're putting words in their mouth and lashing out for things they never said. A reasonable interpretation of their claims is that even if not everyone can hole up, government policies that are intense encourage everyone to hole up as much as they can. It's also worth mentioning that many, many working class people did not enjoy the fact that they had to take on risk in order to survive. Pretending everything is fine simply offloads even more risk onto those people.
      - xxxxxxx12 6y ago
        You do realize that normative claims like "they ought", "government should", etc. are precisely the faculty-lounge, haughty idealism, that's worth absolutely nothing to people as they are, spoken from a position of privilege, condescension and fake expertise? Notice how teachers act as though they're above everyone else? Refusing to work, whereas normal people that aren't of means largely kept working, and didn't act like paranoid agoraphobes exaggerating their actual risk? It's no secret that most people overestimate their risk by an order(if not multiple) of magnitude.
        joshuamorton 6y ago
        This has nothing to do with what I or the other poster said. I'll reiterate that many people who were forced to work were not happy about that fact. You're somewhere between pretending those people don't exist and claiming that those lower class people who didn't want to work but had to are also morally bankrupt. It's neither coherent nor respectful of those you claim to be defending.
        xxxxxxx12 6y ago
        Per your bio, you work at Google. You're divorced from the experience of struggling people.
        6y ago