That is a surprisingly bad take from Nate Silver, who I am usually a fan of. The fact that Florida has less excess death than the national average does not prec

That is a surprisingly bad take from Nate Silver, who I am usually a fan of. The fact that Florida has less excess death than the national average does not preclude systematic undercounting. One can both have lower actual deaths than average and also undercount those deaths. And the article that I linked to quoted a study that used excess death numbers and compared those to the official counts. That is by far the best method to estimate an undercount.