Similar situation, but the way I figure it, it's best to err somewhat on the side of caution. Aim to save more than you expect to need, so that a bad return is

Similar situation, but the way I figure it, it's best to err somewhat on the side of caution. Aim to save more than you expect to need, so that a bad return is still enough. The thing to remember is that if you are somehow wealthy beyond need, you can just retire. You don't have to keep working if you're financially stable earlier than expected.