4 ms·

How do NYs numbers compare to states other states, notably the southern ones that resisted lockdowns?

chasd00 6y ago
I don't know what data backs this site but you can start here and do some comparisons http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
verdverm 6y ago
Deaths per capita: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi... Cases per capita: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covi... Attribution to lockdown or not is insufficient to determine these numbers. Mask adherence, population size, and climate are also important. Top 10 deaths per capita are dominated by New England and Southern states
- lixtra 6y ago
  You should also take into account the age structure of the states. The median of Florida is 5 years higher than California’s. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_terr...
  - verdverm 6y ago
    and yet the differ very little in their outcomes (156 v 162 in D/C) as compared to NY at 267
floxy 6y ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
heavyset_go 6y ago
Notably, at the very beginning of the pandemic before lockdowns, COVID ravaged nursing and long-term care homes in the PNW and then in the northeast.
- foo_barrio 6y ago
  At the very beginning it was winter in the Northeast and treatment protocols were being development. Is it fair to even compare the virus that came into NY during Jan to a state where it came after 6 months of study, data and summer weather?
  - heavyset_go 6y ago
    > At the very beginning it was winter in the Northeast and treatment protocols were being development. These two factors are key, in my opinion. Infection rates and deaths fell dramatically in the NE after a better understanding of how to treat COVID was gained, after mitigations for spread were implemented, and after the spring. Those rates also stayed relatively low for the remainder of the pandemic compared to other states, as well.
- Teknoman117 6y ago
  Yup. My grandfather, along with many of the other patients, died in one of these places from COVID in Massachusetts last May. He was in a physical rehab following heart surgery to fix damage from a botched pacemaker installation. The family spent most of January -> March getting the equipment and reworking his house so he could be cared for at home, but he caught COVID before it was ready. He was in critical condition for 2 months until he finally passed. The real kick in the gut that he was considered "COVID free" for the last two weeks but the damage to his lungs was too great. My grandmother was able to be with him when he died, holding his hand in a hazmat suit...
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    I'm so sorry for you and your family. I don't think I've ever read an HN post that made me cry like that.
rallison 6y ago
New York ends up being a problematic comparison point, because they were at zero restrictions until mid March 2020, so most of the infections through near the end of March were effectively a "no restrictions" test case. I.e. people testing positive late March were the highly symptomatic cases (because of limited test availability), so these were generally people infected 10+ days before, which means they were before any restrictions. Restrictions on mass gatherings happened on March 12th, but the stay-at-home order didn't happen until March 22nd. What I'm getting at is that, if you want to use New York as a test comparison for loose vs tight restrictions, you're going to have a much deeper analysis to do, and a large portion of the deaths in New York were effectively resulting from a period when there were zero to minimal restrictions.
- chrismcb 6y ago
  How is this problematic? I thought California was the first to lockdown and the stay at home order was issued on the 19th.
  - rallison 6y ago
    I'm not sure what California has to do with the point I was making? Anyway, it's problematic because around half of the total recorded deaths for New York state, for the entire pandemic up to now, likely resulted from infections that happened during the no/minimal restrictions period in March of 2020. Presumably the original poster wanted a "strong restrictions" vs "light restrictions" comparison w.r.t. to deaths. And that's fine; it's just that New York is going to give you a poor starting point for that comparison unless you dive deeper.
rossdavidh 6y ago
Well, NY's numbers don't look good compared to any state except New Jersey's. I think it's probably fair to say that they had a harder job than, say, Vermont or Maine, though, given their population density. Latitude and urban density seem to be better predictors of covid-19 mortality than anything related to human actions (except vaccination rates).
MarkLowenstein 6y ago
Important question. If NY were a country, it would only rank behind Hungary, Gibraltar, and Czechia for the highest death rate. And it has been that way or worse since April 2020, even as other states and countries had their worst problems later on. NY and the even-worse-faring NJ are denser and therefore likelier to have higher total infection numbers and deaths than the Plains states. So I wouldn't even accuse them of mismanagement except that this nursing home strategy seems to have been a bad one. However I think the story here is how the media chose their favorite son in this (Cuomo) despite him actually being one of the worst performers. And the TV-news-watching public dutifully ate it up despite clearly contrary data being available on the web from Day 1.
- StriverGuy 6y ago
  For some reason no one wants to talk about urban density. Comparing populations is not apples to apples. New York was also the first hit in the world and most medical treatment/handling wasnt really understood when NY got hit with the brunt of the virus in March 2020.

I don't know what data backs this site but you can start here and do some comparisons http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

verdverm 6y ago

Deaths per capita: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi... Cases per capita: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covi... Attribution to lockdown or not is insufficient to determine these numbers. Mask adherence, population size, and climate are also important. Top 10 deaths per capita are dominated by New England and Southern states

lixtra 6y ago
You should also take into account the age structure of the states. The median of Florida is 5 years higher than California’s. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_terr...
- verdverm 6y ago
  and yet the differ very little in their outcomes (156 v 162 in D/C) as compared to NY at 267

floxy 6y ago

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...

heavyset_go 6y ago

Notably, at the very beginning of the pandemic before lockdowns, COVID ravaged nursing and long-term care homes in the PNW and then in the northeast.

foo_barrio 6y ago
At the very beginning it was winter in the Northeast and treatment protocols were being development. Is it fair to even compare the virus that came into NY during Jan to a state where it came after 6 months of study, data and summer weather?
- heavyset_go 6y ago
  > At the very beginning it was winter in the Northeast and treatment protocols were being development. These two factors are key, in my opinion. Infection rates and deaths fell dramatically in the NE after a better understanding of how to treat COVID was gained, after mitigations for spread were implemented, and after the spring. Those rates also stayed relatively low for the remainder of the pandemic compared to other states, as well.
Teknoman117 6y ago
Yup. My grandfather, along with many of the other patients, died in one of these places from COVID in Massachusetts last May. He was in a physical rehab following heart surgery to fix damage from a botched pacemaker installation. The family spent most of January -> March getting the equipment and reworking his house so he could be cared for at home, but he caught COVID before it was ready. He was in critical condition for 2 months until he finally passed. The real kick in the gut that he was considered "COVID free" for the last two weeks but the damage to his lungs was too great. My grandmother was able to be with him when he died, holding his hand in a hazmat suit...
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  I'm so sorry for you and your family. I don't think I've ever read an HN post that made me cry like that.

rallison 6y ago

New York ends up being a problematic comparison point, because they were at zero restrictions until mid March 2020, so most of the infections through near the end of March were effectively a "no restrictions" test case. I.e. people testing positive late March were the highly symptomatic cases (because of limited test availability), so these were generally people infected 10+ days before, which means they were before any restrictions. Restrictions on mass gatherings happened on March 12th, but the stay-at-home order didn't happen until March 22nd. What I'm getting at is that, if you want to use New York as a test comparison for loose vs tight restrictions, you're going to have a much deeper analysis to do, and a large portion of the deaths in New York were effectively resulting from a period when there were zero to minimal restrictions.

chrismcb 6y ago
How is this problematic? I thought California was the first to lockdown and the stay at home order was issued on the 19th.
- rallison 6y ago
  I'm not sure what California has to do with the point I was making? Anyway, it's problematic because around half of the total recorded deaths for New York state, for the entire pandemic up to now, likely resulted from infections that happened during the no/minimal restrictions period in March of 2020. Presumably the original poster wanted a "strong restrictions" vs "light restrictions" comparison w.r.t. to deaths. And that's fine; it's just that New York is going to give you a poor starting point for that comparison unless you dive deeper.

rossdavidh 6y ago

Well, NY's numbers don't look good compared to any state except New Jersey's. I think it's probably fair to say that they had a harder job than, say, Vermont or Maine, though, given their population density. Latitude and urban density seem to be better predictors of covid-19 mortality than anything related to human actions (except vaccination rates).

MarkLowenstein 6y ago

Important question. If NY were a country, it would only rank behind Hungary, Gibraltar, and Czechia for the highest death rate. And it has been that way or worse since April 2020, even as other states and countries had their worst problems later on. NY and the even-worse-faring NJ are denser and therefore likelier to have higher total infection numbers and deaths than the Plains states. So I wouldn't even accuse them of mismanagement except that this nursing home strategy seems to have been a bad one. However I think the story here is how the media chose their favorite son in this (Cuomo) despite him actually being one of the worst performers. And the TV-news-watching public dutifully ate it up despite clearly contrary data being available on the web from Day 1.

StriverGuy 6y ago
For some reason no one wants to talk about urban density. Comparing populations is not apples to apples. New York was also the first hit in the world and most medical treatment/handling wasnt really understood when NY got hit with the brunt of the virus in March 2020.