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From a statistics point of view, your argument seems to be flawed. It's very unlikely for someone who is born poor to end up rich, no matter how wise their choi

by hooande 15y ago

From a statistics point of view, your argument seems to be flawed. It's very unlikely for someone who is born poor to end up rich, no matter how wise their choices are. From the wikipedia page on "Economic Mobility" [1]: "Children previously from lower-income families had only a 1% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 5%" I can't imagine that making perfect decisions for one's entire life would change those odds too much. If you're born poor, you're probably going to stay poor. It seems that the decision for most poor people is "Do you want to struggle and deny yourself for a 1% chance at being rich, or do you just want to enjoy yourself while you're here?" It's always made sense to me that poor people spend most of their money on making life less boring. It's not like they had bright futures lined up but they threw it all away for booze. Most of them were born screwed and had sense enough to see it. [1] http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/Hertz_MobilityAnalysis.pdf http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/Hertz_Mobilit...

Someone 15y ago
"Children previously from lower-income families had only a 1% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 5%" That phrase is almost devoid of content. In the extreme, both that statistic and "Children previously from lower-income families had a 90% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 25%" could be true. I would be surprised if that was the case, but I couldn't find the data to proof that in that link you posted, either. What I would like to see is the distribution of upward/downward mobility.
- ippisl 15y ago
  from wikipedia[1]: Moving between quintiles is more frequent in the middle quintiles (2-4) than in the lowest and highest quintiles. Of those in one of the quintiles 2-4 in 1996, approximately 35% stayed in the same quintile; and approximately 22% went up one quintile or down one quintile (moves of more than one quintile are rarer). However, 42% of children born in the bottom quintile are most likely to stay there, and another 42% move up to the second and middle quintile[3]. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 39% of those who were born into the top quintile as children in 1968 are likely to stay there, and 23% end up in the fourth quintile[3]. Children previously from lower-income families had only a 1% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 5%[4]. On the other hand, the children of wealthy families have a 22% chance of reaching the top 5%[4]. [1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility#United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility#United_States

by hooande 15y ago

Someone 15y ago

"Children previously from lower-income families had only a 1% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 5%" That phrase is almost devoid of content. In the extreme, both that statistic and "Children previously from lower-income families had a 90% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 25%" could be true. I would be surprised if that was the case, but I couldn't find the data to proof that in that link you posted, either. What I would like to see is the distribution of upward/downward mobility.

ippisl 15y ago
from wikipedia[1]: Moving between quintiles is more frequent in the middle quintiles (2-4) than in the lowest and highest quintiles. Of those in one of the quintiles 2-4 in 1996, approximately 35% stayed in the same quintile; and approximately 22% went up one quintile or down one quintile (moves of more than one quintile are rarer). However, 42% of children born in the bottom quintile are most likely to stay there, and another 42% move up to the second and middle quintile[3]. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 39% of those who were born into the top quintile as children in 1968 are likely to stay there, and 23% end up in the fourth quintile[3]. Children previously from lower-income families had only a 1% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 5%[4]. On the other hand, the children of wealthy families have a 22% chance of reaching the top 5%[4]. [1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility#United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility#United_States